Punditry has its limits. You try to learn as much as you can about an issue, look for patterns and trends, and then tell a story stringing together the facts you've gathered. You tell a story because you're trying to make a point, and people remember and respond well to stories. From our distant past reliance on oral tradition to spread knowledge, to growing up as children listening to our parents read, to grabbing a great book, watching a movie, or telling a story ourselves - stories are how we understand and learn. But stories involve generalizations. We'll never know what was in the head of each voter casting a ballot in yesterday's Illinois 14th Congressional Democratic Primary. Some voters may have researched every issue they cared about and voted certain of their choice. Others may have randomly grabbed a leaflet and liked what it said about the candidate. Some may have liked a candidates' name because it reminded them of their uncle. Others may have employed the childhood decision game "Eenie meanie minie moe." bored now has written "campaigns are won by money, message, management and mobilization." That's no doubt true - but one would be foolish not to include 'chance, luck, or opportunity' - Machiavelli, no slouch in things strategic, figured "Fortuna" amounted to half of what happens in human affairs. That sounds about right to me.
What are some factors that would seem to explain a lot of what happened Tuesday?
OK, first, I don't know how I got invited to this particular gathering; and this was definitely not what I expected it would be.
A few nights ago, my partner and I were invited to join a few other people in a private home at which Howard Dean spoke, mingled, and was generous and congenial.
I've been at Howard Dean gatherings before. The last time was in a room with several hundred other people in red chairs arranged to look at the podium, when Jan Schakowsky opened for Howard Dean like he was a rock star, which, let's face it, he is.
But not that night. That night there were 15-20 of us in a very nice house with very nice food and sitting comfortably on very nice furniture.
And, again, for the life of me, I have no idea why I was there, but, I was, and here's your report.
Rahm Emanuel told us that Tammy Duckworth was more “electable” than Christine Cegelis because of Duckworth’s service in Iraq, and her sacrifice. I said at the time that Republicans always attack candidates on their strength. They’ve been doing it for years, but the Democratic leadership still hasn’t caught on.
From Talking Points Memo:
GOP candidate Roskam accuses Democratic opponent Duckworth of wanting to 'cut and run' in Iraq.
Duckworth, a double amputee, lost both legs while serving in Iraq.
