Bitterness doesn't fade away, it becomes your strength (+)
by: bored now
Tue Mar 28, 2006 at 14:55:55 PM CST
i've won campaigns. and not just a few. but while i cannot remember all the campaigns i've won, i remember every single loss. every one of them, they burn in my gut like a bad case of food poisoning.
around this point in the campaign cycle (after the primary), you always hear the winners conjoling the losers to let it go, suck it up, for the good of the team.
and, every time, i always think that anyone who says this has never really been involved in a campaign. they're completely full of it.
He just can't help himself. First the recount petition and now this. In the Beacon News'"Laesch is not in Foster's Corner," John Laesch just said buh-bye to the very Democratic organization he's helped to build in IL-14.
Calling Foster a conservative "Blue Dog" Democrat, Laesch said he would not be lining up behind Foster for the November general election.
Laesch is "Mr. Progressive" and Bill Foster leans too far to the right for his taste. I get it, but isn't it very bad form for someone to pledge non-support for a fellow Dem and to throw his hat into the ring for the 2010 primaries before the November general? How could he expect the Democrats ever to support him again after such a stunt?
Answer: somehow he will expect it, then complain bitterly when it's not forthcoming. It's some sort of perpetual underdog image thingy.
[Note: I am reluctantly allowing comments. If it turns out badly, I'd prefer you try to see me as a martyr for the First Amendment. But I'm not terribly optimistic.]
Chris "Star of Romania" Lauzen is down and out and with any luck he'll take some of the Christo-Cop vote with him. But what of Jim Oberweis? What can we expect? What's his message? Where is he weak?
richard k. means, the best progressive election lawyer in the state of illinois, explains that the procedure for obtaining a recount is quite clear:
A discovery recount is only available in Illinois to a candidate who is within 95% of the winner. Even then you get to recount only 25% of the precincts in every election jusridiction in the district for a pidling $10 per precinct. In order to change the result, you have to go to court and prove that, had certain very specificly described errors not been made, that your candidate would have won.
means is one of the authors of the 2002 handbook on illinois election law published by the illinois institute for continuing legal education and wrote the chapter on recounts in the state.
As many of you may know, John Laesch held a press conference this morning to discuss the unresolved election in IL-14. At this point Laesch still trails his primary opponent by 355 votes in the general primary, although all the absentee ballots are not counted (in fact, County Clerks must wait until February 19th for their return) and there is still an outstanding question as to whether all the provisional ballots have been counted in all nine counties.
John Laesch has conceded the special primary to his opponent, who will run against Republican nominee Jim Oberweis on March 8 to decide who will fill the remaining ten months of Hastert's term, but he has not conceded the general primary, which is still undecided until all votes are counted. This morning Laesch held a press conference to answer the many questions the campaign has been bombarded with regarding his intentions. I attended it. And since the campaign has made it clear they will make no further statements, I will share my observations and the text of his remarks below.
What's clear to everyone is that Bill Foster (D) will face Jim Oberweis (R) in competing for the 14th District U.S. House seat in the special election March 8, the one that determines who fills the remainder of Dennis Hastert's term of office.
Unfortunately, the notion that Foster will face Oberweis in the November general election for a new term of office is not set in enough cement for some. That's because Foster beat John Laesch only by a few hundred votes in the regular primary. There are still a few absentee ballots to count, and Laesch will have to decide whether or not to pursue a recount.
Laesch has a dilemma. He is going to have to choose between his group of volunteers and his party.
Punditry has its limits. You try to learn as much as you can about an issue, look for patterns and trends, and then tell a story stringing together the facts you've gathered. You tell a story because you're trying to make a point, and people remember and respond well to stories. From our distant past reliance on oral tradition to spread knowledge, to growing up as children listening to our parents read, to grabbing a great book, watching a movie, or telling a story ourselves - stories are how we understand and learn. But stories involve generalizations. We'll never know what was in the head of each voter casting a ballot in yesterday's Illinois 14th Congressional Democratic Primary. Some voters may have researched every issue they cared about and voted certain of their choice. Others may have randomly grabbed a leaflet and liked what it said about the candidate. Some may have liked a candidates' name because it reminded them of their uncle. Others may have employed the childhood decision game "Eenie meanie minie moe." bored now has written "campaigns are won by money, message, management and mobilization." That's no doubt true - but one would be foolish not to include 'chance, luck, or opportunity' - Machiavelli, no slouch in things strategic, figured "Fortuna" amounted to half of what happens in human affairs. That sounds about right to me.
What are some factors that would seem to explain a lot of what happened Tuesday?
First of all a shout-out to Kristen. I was up before 4 a.m. yesterday, dragging my sick self out to my election gig (which lasted until nearly 10 p.m.) with a carafe of Traditional Medicinals Throat Coat Tea (with honey). I talked the livelong day and believe it really saved my voice.
Our polling place covers four NIU (DeKalb) campus precincts.
The Disenfranchised & the Fail Safe Voters
A huge, huge problem with the students' registrations is that they move all the time and do not think to update their voters' registrations. Many would have been turned away yesterday for this reason except for Fail Safe. Instead of purging a registration entirely when the voter's mailed card is returned "undeliverable," the registration remains in the system as "suspended" (actually, they quite descriptively call it being "in suspense.") Though the voter's info does not appear in the rolls, a phone call to election authority headquarters confirms the old info. The voter then updates the mailing address and is entitled to vote a Federal ballot at his/her old precinct. (This is different from obtaining a Provisional ballot, in which case the voter maintains that his/her registration address is still the correct one.)
The saddest story of the day concerned the de facto disenfranchisement of a group of freshmen who had registered last fall in their dormitory cafeteria.
While I delayed writing "Part II" because of work, family flu and the holidays - it hasn't been easy to write anyway. The truth of the matter is that on policy I have differences in different areas with all four Democratic candidates in the 14th District, Bill Foster included. But politics often involves compromises - the type where you win some, and lose some, and rarely the type where you get met "half-way." I had my disagreements with Howard Dean while actively supporting him for president in 2003/4. Very early this cycle I was one of two authors of the former blog "Feingold for Illinois," but I have substantial disagreements with some of Russ Feingold's positions too. The test of support cannot be that you are 100% in agreement with the candidate you support - there will be too few, if any, you can support. The issue then is about thresholds - do you agree with the candidate on the issues enough to support them?
What happens in Podunk shouldn't stay there. Or at least if it does, the Democratic Party Establishment, the corporate wing of the Democratic Party, the Blue Dogs among us, will have won one more unrecorded battle against those of us who want real change.
What's happening most immediately in the IL-14 corner of Podunk (a term I use here to describe anything not directly inside the DC Beltway) is a primary and a special primary on Tuesday, between the DC insider "pick" for our district, an attorney who is a relative newcomer to both politics and our area, and John Laesch, the nominee against Denny Hastert last time out, and the only progressive in the race.
At this point, I'd call it a significant bellwether for the upcoming Congressional elections that virtually no one outside of IL-14 is paying much attention to in the glare of the presidential race, as well as a bellwether event in the battle for control of the party. So while I don't expect this diary to get much attention, I want to leave a record of what has happened in this primary. Bellwethers, however unobserved at the time, sometimes have a way of becoming useful history for those who follow.
in a race like this one, after the financial disclosure reports are put up, there's still things to watch for. first, there's the personal funds contributions reports like this one (PDF), this one (PDF), this one (PDF), this one (PDF) and this one (PDF) from bill foster. these are paired with reports of opposition to personal funds like this one and this one from john laesch along with this one, this one and this one from jotham stein. these are great fun for people running against a self-funder -- well, when the fec has a working majority. right now, there's not a thing that the fec can do. you can blame bush, if you want, for that, too.
then there's the 48 hour notice for contributions in excess of $1,000 or more for the 20 days before an election. these tell us who's still aggressively raising money -- which is more important, since the millionaire's amendment has been tripped in this election (allowing laesch and stein to raise considerably more than $2300 from each contributor). foster has raised at least $18,900 in new monies that required 48 hour notices. laesch has raised at least $5,500 in new monies that required 48 hour notices. and stein has raised at least $4,100 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.
the most important news at this point is that early voting has begun. for those who live in illinois' 14th congressional district, the ballot positions for the special primary election are:
Chris Lauzen brags in his campaign literature about all of the times he was the lone dissenting voice in a full Senate vote. Since he seems to have an almost unique talent for getting both political parties to bury their differences in order to oppose him, could Lauzen be the man we need to send to Washington in order to bring bi-partisanship back into the House?
the two primaries in illinois' 14th congressional district are fast approaching. the biggest piece of news in this race is that the endorsement session for the chicago tribune is available online:
but given the importance of this particular race -- voters will not only be choosing their nominees for the general election in november, but also their nominees for the special election in march to fill the term of retiring dennis hastert -- there's plenty of other news.
UPDATE: thanks to kpfarrer, jotham stein's mailer is below the fold.
this would be no surprise to those who are following this race closely. the story repeats the belief that foster's organizational and financial advantages make him the front runner in this race. this is true despite the fact that john laesch had run before and is a sentimental favorite, of sorts, to many on the blogs. shawn campbell's piece talked mainly about the lawsuit that the counties have filed, to cover themselves in the high expectations that the various elections offices may not meet all the mandates they are expected to meet in their conduct of elections (because the special election is only a month away from the special primary).
A couple months ago I commented that John Laesch has a future in politics but that his time just hasn't arrived yet.
This is really something, considering how furious I was with him the last election cycle. What changed is that people I really like, like him. Out of respect I had to reconsider Laesch and eventually came to realize that the campaign's missteps arise not from nefariousness, but simply from dysfunction.
Well now, that's something that can be fixed. If anyone's the poster child for that it's me--though fear not, this diary is pretty much about him. ;~P
The latest batch of endorsements include a former mayor of John Laesch's home town along with several aldermen and county board members:
(Geneva, IL) - Reinforcing his broad appeal as an experienced problem solver who will be able to work across party lines in Congress, Bill Foster today received the endorsement of the Republican former mayor of Newark, as well as the endorsements of numerous Democratic and Republican county board members and aldermen from around the 14th Congressional District. "As a lifelong Republican, I have never voted for a Democrat in my life. I have known Bill Foster for 24 years, and a lot of the issues are still there. Although he's a Democrat and I'm a Republican, I think Bill is best suited to help end the partisan bickering in Washington, DC, and get things done for a change," Roger Ness said. Ness served as the Mayor of Newark, Illinois for over 20 years, from 1985 to 2005. For four years before that, he held the post of Assistant Mayor of the southwestern Kendall County village. "My biggest issues are health care and helping small businesses," Ness said."I am proud to endorse Bill Foster as the candidate best able to solve them."
Foster, a successful businessman and scientist, is running in a February 5 primary and March 8 special election to serve the 14th District in the U.S. Congress. Today, he also announced that he had garnered the support of DeKalb County Board member Robert Rosemier; Kane County Board members Gerald Jones, Bonnie Lee Kunkel, and Rudy Neuberger; and Aldermen Chuck Brown(Geneva), Mike Saville (Aurora), and Jim Volk (Batavia).
