Now comes word that Obama has sent Emily Parcell to run the Indiana campaign:
Shannon Gilson, a spokeswoman for Obama's campaign, said the campaign feels so strongly about its chances in Indiana that it has assigned Emily Parcell, who was political director for Obama in the crucial first-caucus state of Iowa, to be state director in Indiana.
Obama is running a state wide ad buy.
And McCain is coming there to campaign and raise money.
Indiana is most decidely in play. It is in play because it is in play. Yes Obama can win Indiana. Roosevelt of New York won it in 1936 and Johnson of Texas won it in 1964. No McCain is not Goldwater and Obama is neither Kennedy nor Roosevelt, but Obama of Illinois is a senator from the state next door.
It's hard to tell how the voting is going. Our main passer has one line for everyone, "Will you consider Senator Obama?" Some give big smiles and thanks or readily offer that they are sympathetic. Others just wave you off, or are stonily silent. Others seem visibly angry, say "No way" or worse. One elderly fellow, after voting, as our passer thanked him, turned and, pointing to the flyer, said, "You know, he isn't going to do anything for the whites."
"He is half-white," our flustered passer reminded the voter.
"Nah. He's a n****r, period," said the good burgher of Dyer.
Coincidentally, The Rude Pundit explained this sort of thing yesterday.
When a large swath of a state is populated by people from the Appalachian region who migrated northward for factory jobs decades ago and then those factory jobs dry the fuck up for the most part, what you are left with is a bunch of resentful crackers looking to play "where's the scapegoat?" Thank Christ that Gary is in the state, because that violent rat's nest gives whites all the ammunition they need for hating blacks all around the state.
That just about nails it, and I should know, having been raised by a Real McCoy in NW Indiana.
First off, let me advise anyone ever going to NW Indiana that if Mapquest tells you to get off at Exit 74B, ignore it unless you want to head toward Iowa/Wisconsin. If you have a 4 am departure and coffee hasn't kicked in you could, hypothetically speaking, get confused.
Fortunately the bonus of working Lake County is that you might think you will be 1/2 hour late, but due to the screwy split time zones of Indiana, a town like Dyer is on Chicago time, so even with a detour -- not saying I took one but just hypothetically -- you can still make your 5:45 phone-in.
My destination and station for today, Faith Reformed Church, is a small megachurch surrounded by a subdivision of spanking new homes on the western edge of Indiana, with Cook County visible just beyond a golf course sand trap. Obviously in dire need (heh heh) of a legal observer. By "small" I mean that the parking lot looks to hold about 700 cars, and the first Obama passer stationed here, who attends, says they have 4 services each Sunday morning, all 4 are packed to the gills, and so they are going to tear down the church (which is all of about 3 years old) and build a bigger one (a McCathedral?). The secret? He says their pastors are all "educated" and "we have lots of music."
fifteen months ago, a few people journeyed down to springfield to get "fired up." next week, indiana can begin a whole new phase of barack obama's presidential campaign. you can be a part of that history. i'd even go so far as to strongly suggest that you should be a part of that history. if barack wins indiana -- something that isn't impossible -- this bitterly divisive primary is over. and you can make that happen.
from saturday through tuesday (6 pm) when the polls close, the obama campaign will be conducting their gotv canvasses and phone banks to drive their voters to the polls. this is a labor-intensive effort that requires a lot of manpower. but it is not just that. one of the primary advantages that republicans have in presidential elections is that their activists and supporters never allow an election day to go by without helping out. working on election day should be mandatory for democratic activists, but certainly participating in gotv efforts is something you should strongly consider. take election day off. hell, take off monday and tuesday! the experience you gain this weekend will hone your chops for november.
Saturday, I went back to Hammond Indiana with the Democratic Party of Evanston. This time, there were 25 of us leaving Evanston. The Hammond Obama office was jammed the whole time we were there. (We went seperately in cars, The car in which I was riding -- with two sisters -- got there fairly early; another car came later, but the ofice was so jammed that they arrived before we could leave.)
Reception in the area I covered was overwhelmingly positive. Most were not home, but more than half of those who were said that they were Obama voters. Many said that they would vote early. I got one volunteer.
The driver had to come back early, so I was there only two or three hours, but we think we made a real difference.
Next Saturday, the effort will be getting out the vote.
Cars leave the Democratic Party of Evanston at 10:00 A.M.
Or see the directions here for the rendezvous of NDFA.
It looks as if Indiana my just end up reflecting the nation as a whole. Pretty much tied up with a slight Obama egde.
Update: But lets be cautious here. Clinton has been doing better with the later undecideds. Add that there is some hesitancy on the part of people for whom race can be a large and often negative consideration, that is to say racists, to be completly candid and we might well be looking at a solid, if not large, Clinton win in Indiana.
Update 2: blueollie points out in the comments that: "What has happened this year is that the undecided voters have been breaking for whoever is ahead at the time of the last few polls. Example: the undecided votes went big for Obama in Wisconsin and Mississippi".
Selzer & Co., 534 Dem LVs, April 20-23, MoE +- 4.2%
Saturday, while (almost) all eyes in the nation were on Pennsylvania, some of us went from the Chicago area to help the effort in Indiana.
We went from Evanston (organized by the Democratic Party of Evanson and Cong. Jan Schakowsky's political operation) to Hammond IN.
(This is reposted from my daiary -- Frank Palmer -- on Daily Kos.)
The details are after the jump.
Bloomberg/LA Times (Obama 40 - Clinton 35) and SurveyUSA (Obama 50 - Clinton 45) both have Obama Leading in Indiana. Jonathan Singer over a MyDD notes however:
This survey was entirely in the field before the last Democratic debate, so the sentiments of those Hoosier voters do not reflect a reaction to the latest back and forth in the race between Clinton and Obama. However, for whatever it's worth, the survey has given both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics enough data from which to formulate a trend estimate and a poll average, respectively. According to Pollster, Clinton's lead now sits at 49 percent to 43 percent, while RCP average has Clinton up 46.0 percent to 43.8 percent. What we do know for sure at this point is this: Three of the last five polls released in the state have the race within the margin of error, with one more survey just a point outside of that margin, so this sure looks like a close race at this juncture.
A poll taken just before (April 2-3) an Obama visit in Ft Wayne (April 4) yielded similar results to the SurveyUSA poll. In the ARG poll Clinton leads Obama 53% to 44%. All of theses polls are roughly within each others margins of errors.
Still these 9 point polls are very likely Obama's floor. It has been his history to tighten up the races. That's the news coming out of PA even now.
New Polling via BlueIndiana shows a tigtening race there as Obama is appearing statewide in the media where as Clinton has not. This is in spite of no new visits there by Obama for several weeks.
Important note: Registration for the Indiana Primary ends April 7.
There's a new poll out of Indiana this evening and it shows a tightening race in my state's presidential primary battle. Here are the results, along with the numbers from Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll: Research 2000
400 Likely Voters -- MoE 5% - 3/31-4/2 49% -- Hillary Clinton
46% -- Barack Obama
5% -- Undecided
For the record: SurveyUSA has one of the best track records of any polling outfit this primary election cycle. So keep that in mind as you read these new results by Research 2000.
poor hillary. she just can't get a break. she's coming to hammond, indiana tomorrow, but she's calling illinois women to help fill the hammond civic center.
mrs. bored, a longtime democratic activist, received a robocall from hillary clinton "herself." but you can understand why. first, washington high school rejected the clinton campaign's request to hold a rally there (in south bend). then 25 indiana legislators, including it's hispanic member, endorsed barack obama. many of them are from northwest indiana, where hillary is struggling to fill the auditorium.
Glenn Murphy is a busy man in Indiana. Too bad he got caught with his hands in (no, they were on) the cookie jar. It is one way of representing the Republican Party.
Hat tip to Democrat Mike Ziri, one of the newest members of Springfield Metropolitan Exposition & Auditorium Authority.
in indiana, a moderate, a conservative and a liberal democrat all beat republican incumbents. i could be wrong, but it seems to me that this red state was the greatest source of net gain for democrats in this late-breaking wave election year. like montana and colorado in 2004, indiana offers some very real clues about how democrats can beat republicans anywhere, everywhere.
they offer important lessons. two dramatic differences stand out between these indiana races and elsewhere: early field and opportunity (or climate).
It has been almost one week since election day and I am still recovering from the last month of the campaign. Get Out The Vote was a mix of long hours, stress, and multi-tasking but in the end it was all worth it. We pulled off the upset and unseated a two term incumbent with a significant fund raising advantage. It just goes to show that you cannot buy your way into or out of doing wrong by the people.
Thanks to the Soapblox/Chicago community for indulging my posts throughout the campaign season and even before that. We had some support from the Chicagoland area and some financial contributions as well.
Well, we are 10 days out. It has been a long, strange road and I thank the Soapblox community for indulging my relentless drumbeating for an Indiana race.
Things are going well: the latest poll shows us up five points (with a 3 1/2% margin of error), the money is holding up and we seem to have an energized and motivated base. However, those of you who are not new to this game know that it all comes down to Get Out The Vote (GOTV). The Donnelly campaign is in need of volunteer help for our GOTV operation which will run from November 4th-7th. If anyone has the time, we have an assignment for you.
2nd District
Supporters of Rep. Chris Chocola are crying foul that he's taking blame for the leasing of the Indiana Toll Road to a private entity, an unpopular move in the Northern Indiana district.
But challenger Joe Donnelly is right to argue that a congressperson should at least have spoken up informally about the momentous deal involving an interstate highway, even if the federal government was not directly involved.
Making his second consecutive run at the Republican two-term incumbent, Democrat Donnelly could benefit enough from the Toll Road controversy and another state issue, daylight-saving time, to close the narrow margin by which he lost in 2004. Dissatisfaction with the national GOP and with the Iraq war also is behind one of the nation's closest congressional races.
At the same time, Donnelly, a well-spoken Mishawaka businessman and former State Election Board member, brings many positives of his own to the table, including sound, moderate positions on extrication from Iraq, immigration control and taxation. While Chocola in his brief tenure has established himself as an advocate for small business and fiscal sense, Donnelly is the better choice between two worthy candidates.
These comments were written by the Star editorial board and appeared in the October 15th edition of the Indianapolis Star, Indiana's largest newspaper.
Great story in today's Chicago Tribune on the wave of momentum Indiana's Democratic Congressional Candidates are riding. We really have the wingnuts on the run! Especially sweet was the mention Joe Donnelly received. Let me tell you, the toll road issue is gold for Democrats and poison for Republicans. Chocola, who regularly touts his influence as a member of Ways and Means and can bring President Bush in for a personal fundraiser, would not get involved in either the toll road issue or the time zone switch. What is he there for? These are issues where we need someone in Washington speaking up for what the people want. By the way, I hear that Bush is coming back in late September. I would not count on the wingnuts to stay away from him...
recently, i was asked by a couple of what i call uprooted volunteers what races i'd recommend for them to participate in this fall. these are people who travelled to iowa for dean and michigan, ohio and wisconsin for kerry. their focus is decidely national, less illinois-centric. this list (continued) is for people like them! part one, races ranked 1-5, can be found here.
these races are ranked based on an assessment of 1.) candidate, 2.) fund-raising, 3.) political environment, 4.) political climate, 5.) field organization, 6.) messaging, and 7.) potential impact on 2008. i've worked or advised campaigns in every one of these states except indiana (go figure) in the 2002 and 2004 election cycles, and have used that as part of this assessment.
....
donors and volunteers are valuable, and shouldn't have their time wasted:
three times in the past eight days i've been asked about how a potential volunteer and contributor should budget their time in campaigns within shouting distance of chicago. this isn't really an easy request. how you should spend *your* time and money should reflect your priorities, your ideological leanings, and your "vision" for the country. if you are really concerned about local things, even in so-called red districts, you should spend your time helping to build up your local party organization, regardless of your candidate's chances in the fall. think strategically, act locally.
meaning, how you spend your time and money doesn't have to be objective. an exercise like this one does.
(Show some love to our neighbors to the east. Turn Indiana blue! - promoted by EricV)
Great news for the Joe Donnelly campaign: Joe has been named as part of the second wave of "Red to Blue" candidates by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. This "officially" puts Joe on the slate of candidates backed by the D-trip in 2006. Joe has been working like a dog since mid-2005, raising money in $20's and $100's, so this is welcome news for us. We need the DCCC's help to take down Rep. Chocola because the RNC and RNCC are definitely kicking in their resources on top of Chocola's already monumental war chest. ($600,000 alone from President Bush's February visit)
I have volunteered to head up the coordination of Joe's volunteers from outside our nervecenter of St. Joseph County. If anyone is interested in coming...
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.