For the first time in years, parts of blood red north-central Will County have a strong Democratic presence in their municipal elections. This hasn't gone unnoticed by GOP incumbents, and increased anxiety about maintaining their seats has gotten at least one township official in hot water.
Oh-so-scandalous details and an analysis below the fold.
On Tuesday, freshman Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson officially opened her new district office in Joliet. The first sign that something was happening was on I-80. On the crowded stretch between Orland and Joliet, we all seemed to be going to the same place. There were green "Halvorson" stickers on many of the cars. If you eliminated the trucks who shared the road with us, we'd have legitimately been called a caravan.
Following the internet mapping programs only work if all the roads are marked. So I almost missed the road perpendicular to the Joliet baseball stadium. But I was familiar enough with the area to know that the next road (Clinton) was a road too far. Thank god for a tight turning radius.
Parking was the next issue. Everyone was looking for a parking spot ten minutes before the open house was supposed to begin. Thankfully, I noticed a spot back from whence I came and (again) turned around. As I did so, I noticed that Halvorson's district office manager was putting up the ribbon. So I had timed everything just right.
my wife asked, "Is she a Democrat or a Republican?". In a Democratic year, which is especially true down ticket, it should have been obvious. I forgot to look at the beginning of the ad where it might have been stated, but if it's that easy for both of us to miss, then something is amiss.
While State Senator Debbie Halvorson and husband Jim Bush are with their severely injured son at Walter Reed, her millionaire opponent Marty Ozinga decides to attack her with nasty robocalls into the Illinois 11th Congressional District.
Captain Jay Bush is in the Special Forces. He was severely injured late last week when the truck he was riding on came under attack in Afghanistan. He jumped out of the truck on a bridge and fell 20 feet to rocks below. I believe he has broken his back and neck.
We would like to invite you all to join the Illinois 11th District Democrats at our second annual fundraising event happening on Friday, August 22nd. The event will be held at Angelino's Restaurant, 9301 W. 191st St in Mokena (near I-80) from 5:30 to 8:00 pm. Come enjoy appetizers, soda, and a cashbar, and listen to, among others, Congressional candidate Debbie Halvorson. Tickets are $50 for regular and $200 for host committee. For more information or to confirm your attendance, please call Nikhil Bhatia at 815-557-3528
Friday 22 August
Angelino's Restaurant
5:30-8:00
$50-$200
There's a famous quote about the significance of fundraising: money is the mother's milk of politics. Generally, a campaign's finances reflect on that candidate's levels of support, ability to generate enthusiasm, chances of winning, and generally the campaign's health.
In that light, the recently released Quarter 2 fundraising numbers (April-June) should end any speculation that the IL-11 race will be a cakewalk for Debbie Halvorson. In his first fundraising quarter as a candidate, GOP hopeful Marty Ozinga raised $800,000 and outpaced Halvorson by a 2:1 clip as she brought in $400,000. Ozing's haul is one the best (if not THE best) totals of any Republican congressional challenger in the country. However, because Halvorson has campaigned for longer than Ozinga, she still retains a narrow advantage in actual cash on hand.
Ozinga's fundraising numbers are startling but not entirely surprising. As mom succinctly put it, "rich people have rich friends." Debbie Halvorson is not rich. At this point, I would be very surprised if Ozinga doesnt ultimately outspend her in this race by a notable margin. Already, Ozinga is putting his money to work with a fluffy new bio ad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v... that makes him seem like a good guy (notice: he doesnt mention any issues). Moreover, Ozinga has sidestepped campaign finance laws by increasing ad buys for his company, ostensibly for the purpose of helping his comapny, but really so that his name recognition increases.
Debbie cannot match Marty's money, but we can all still get out her name without hammering the piggy bank. We must start getting out the yard signs and stickers so people know a) who she is, and b) that she has strong support. I will make sure we organize this outreach soon.
Progress Illinois has already reported that IL-11 Democratic candidate Debbie Halvorson has been endorsed by the pro-Israel lobby J Street. Now I am not interested in getting into a fight about which lobby is more pro-Israel. It's a fruitless fight and best left to folks with an enotional investment in the distinctions. As a progressive, I am inclind to believe that J Street is more pro-Israel, but then that's mostly bias on my part. And I don't agree with the radicals over at CounterPunch in their approach as to why J Street is so pro-Israel. So let me quote CounterPunch, get that out of the way and then we can get to the point of this article.
Plainly stated, J Street is simply a pro-Israel lobby. Its "pro-peace" cover is just that. Its policy positions are no different than Barak's 2000 proposal, falling short on all marks. It may provide suitable refuge for American politicians who cannot stomach AIPAC but who also cannot stomach criticizing Israel. The emergence of a lobby like J Street only provides a different means to the same end, making it all the more insidious.
Whether it is AIPAC on the "right" and J Street on "left" in the U.S. or Benjamin Netanyahu and Shimon Peres in Israel, they all sit at the same table and cut the same deals. All are pro-Israel,...
What concerns me, though, is when these lobbies start threatening candidates supported by the other lobby. That is just plain ugly politics and it has no place in honest campaigns. From Matt Stoller at OpenLeft:
On Friday, I was on the phone with Darcy Burner, who told me that she got a call from people affiliated with the conservative Jewish political group AIPAC. They told her to distance herself from the new pro-peace group J Street, which they said is full of radical leftists who believe in capitulation to the forces of the Arab world who would overrun and destroy Israel. Like most conservative arguments, it is utter nonsense backed up by a political threat designed to suppress alternative legitimate political views.
J Street is engaging in such controversial anti-Israel stances as praising the Israeli government for negotiating a Gaza ceasefire and using diplomacy to achieve security. AIPAC is silent on the negotiations, focusing on supporting the use of force and sanctions against Iran. Rather than a pro-Israel group designed to back the policies of the Israeli government, they are, to be blunt, acting as warmongers and using the shield of a Jewish ethnicity to push their own far right views. This has provoked a reaction in the form of J Street, which thousands of Jews support, including me (I am an advisor).
AIPAC's people are backing Darcy's opponent, Dave Reichert, so if they are calling her up and arguing with her, it shows just how confident they are politically at intimidating the opposition. A J Street endorsement is clearly a very risky and scary thing to take, because you'll bring down the wrath of a powerful and well-organized group. I know of several candidates who have refused J Street's endorsements because they don't want to become targets for AIPAC. Darcy Burner, Steve Cohen, Dennis Schulman, Debbie Halvorson, and Mary Jo Kilroy are all showing incredible bravery in doing so; they are not just running as Democrats, they are running as leaders.
So who knows all the ins and outs here. I assume that IL-11 has a smaller percentage Jewish population than does IL-10 with Democratic Dan Seals. Seals is not endorsed by J Street. My guess is that he's avoiding hot potatos. So kudos from me to Debbie for taking some principled slight chances but I'm not suspecting Dan of being anti-Israel or unprincipled. A lot of negatives there and faint praise, eh?
According to the Washington Post's political blogger, Chris Cillizza, our very own 11th District is considered the 8th likeliest Congressional seat to change party hands in the country. Here's his take...
8. Illinois's 11th (Open seat, R): The rocky road for state Sen. Debbie Halvorson (D) continues, as in recent week she has come under fire from some fellow Democrats - including Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. - for a bill she introduced that would give Will County officials operating control over a proposed airport south of Chicago. Democrats insist the fight is actually good news for Halvorson, since it shows voters in the sprawling 11th District that she is standing up for them and not caving to Chicago's political power brokers. Maybe, but a public, internecine feud is almost never good for business. Republicans acknowledge that concrete magnate Martin Ozinga got a very late start but insist he is a surprisingly strong candidate. (Previous ranking: 6)
The J Street PAC, billing itself as a more leftward alternative to AIPAC, has officially endorsed its first candidates for office, and among them is Debbie Halvorson, Democratic candidate to replace Jerry Weller in IL-11.
Halvorson minces no words on Iraq. She condemns Bush for misrepresenting facts in the run up to the war and has stated that the war has "done little to make our country safer."
Halvorson believes that strong U.S. leadership is necessary to bring about an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict "so that other nations see us both as a leader and a partner," and has been dismayed by current US saber rattling on Iran, favoring a renewed attempt at tough diplomatic engagement with Iran.
We were pleased to see that Halvorson's support for Israel and her positions on issues in the Middle East align with our own. We're happy to count Halvorson as part of the first round of JStreetPAC endorsements.
Hello friends, its Nikhil Bhatia, chair of the 11th District Democrats. As a long time reader of PSB, I've always valued the give and take, the shared knowledge and expertise of the contributors on this site. In that spirit, our group has opened its new website, il11thdems.com, to be more interactive for everyone to enjoy.
Its kind of a blog-website hybrid which fits in with the purpose of our group: increasing civic participation in IL-11 for the betterment of the Democratic party. Frankly, we will not have as much as content as PSB because we're focusing on specific CD, but we do hope to really give an in-depth look at politics in our area.
Please sign up to the website, come by and visit, and hopefully drop your two cents. Of course, I will continue to do the same at PSB and who knows- maybe this statewide-CD big brother/little brother relationship will become the norm for all 19 CDs. I can only hope.
Debbie Halvorson (D): 43 Martin Ozinga (R): 32 Jason Wallace (G): 6 Undecided: 18 (MoE: ±4.4%)
Despite this being an R+1.1 district, Democrats hold a 44%-33% generic ballot advantage over Republicans, and a 41%-35% advantage in partisan self-identification.
Central to Republican Marty Ozinga's bid for the open 11th Congressional District seat is his claim to be a Washington outsider. His campaign's slogan -- "I am not a politician" -- says it all. But if this is the image Ozinga wants to project, he probably should have thought twice about hiring GOP political operative Jonathan Poe as his media consultant.
The GOP finally picked their replacement candidate in IL-11 by selecting wealthy businessman Martin Ozinga. In other words, the race is on.
The good news, of course, is that Ozinga starts off at a large organizational disadvantage by starting so late and not having to run a primary. Also, there have been some questions about Ozinga's business dealings.
However, I've been the wet blanket on the IL-11 subject this spring. To begin, even though Halvorson has $673,000 cash on hand right now, Ozinga himself has already raised over $400,000 and has pledged to use $350,000 of his own money on the race (its not clear whether that money is included in the money he has already raised, by I assume not). By keeping his own contributions at that $350,000 mark, the limit on individual contributions stays $2,300. So I do expect this to be a reasonably competitive race from a financial standpoint, and if Ozinga has enough money to pound Halvorson's biggest vulnerability (her ties to Blagojevich), this will be close. Still, I expect Halvorson to win and stand by the prediction I made about a month ago...
Halvorson 53%
Ozinga 47%
Earlier this week, AC4508 reported on an item in Roll Call relaying an "insider" claim that the Republican leadership had settled on concrete contractor Martin Ozinga to replace fund-raising-adverse Tim Baldermann as the GOP candidate in IL-11. An article in this morning's Bloomington Pantagraph seems to indicate that the decision isn't a done deal yet.
It looks like wealthy concrete contractor Martin Ozinga will be the fill-in GOP candidate in IL-11.
http://www.rollcall.com/issues...
Before we start celebrating, lets remember this is going to be a real race. In lieu of Tim Baldermann's inability to fundraise, getting Ozinga might be a net plus in the end for the GOP. Ozinga likely was tapped with the idea that he will use his own money in this race. If he does, this will be a real competition. Remember, all it will take is one damning "In Springfield, Debbie Halvorson worked alongside Rod Blagojevich in the dysfunctional Democratic leadership that has let Illinois down time and again. Now she wants a promotion?!?" ad to keep this race close. Moreover, Bush won the district with 53% so its does lean slightly republican.
Of course, I still think we have a better than 50% shot of winning this thing. Halvorson is a strong candidate due to her constituent base within the district, knowledge of campaigning, and fundraising abilities. Furthermore, if Obama is atop the ticket that might add 1-2%, at least, to every Illinois Congressional candidate. But I just dont want anyone to make the mistake of counting the chickens before they hatch. We've got a lot of work to do yet before we uncork the champagne.
This morning it was confirmed that GOP nominee Tim Baldermann will be unexpectedly withdrawing from the IL-11 race. I just got off the phone with the NRCC, as have our friends over at IR, and I was told that Baldermann will in fact be dropping out.
I wish I could subscribe to an RSS feed of all the illegal activity and public relations disasters Baldermann's (R-New Lenox) campaign has encountered recently. Maybe a Drudge-style siren can appear in my browser to report the week's arrests, investigations, and allegations.
I was going to hold off on writing about Tim Baldermann for a while. Tim is, after all, facing a tough battle for the open seat of disgraced US Rep. Jerry Weller (R-11). As the mayor of my home town of New Lenox, Baldermann been criticized and scrutinized by liberals and conservatives alike.
But today, I realized why I criticize. Tim Baldermann's campaign treasurer resigned yesterday after it surfaced that he is the current target of a FBI investigation into accounting problems at the NRCC. Chris Ward of Baldermann for Congress is being investigated for irregularities in the financial audit process that, according to NRCC Chairman Tom Cole, "may include fraud". Yes, this is the NRCC accounting scandal we have in heard about the last few weeks. Yes, this man is the one causing all the ruckus in DC. And yes, he is closely affiliated with Tim Baldermann and is acting as a member of his staff.
And that, my friends, is why. Not as a Democrat, or a progressive, or a member of a growing youth movement. Not as a student or a whistleblower. I criticize because I cannot willingly subject my home district to another scandal-plagued US Rep. My (although much more politically savvy than is mainstream) friends at university, some of which have never set foot in the state of Illinois, recognize the name Jerry Weller as synonymous with unethical behavior. For goodness' sake, he's been featured in the national media and on the front page of the Chicago Tribune for his misconduct!
This is preaching to the choir. Most regular readers will vote for a progressive candidate. The thing is, not many realize the sad state of affairs in IL-11. It's bad. It's really, really bad. Unethical leadership and scandal is always, always bad. In fact, it's bad enough to want to start becoming directly involved.
He may have won a decisive victory against his opponents in Tuesday's Republican primary, but New Lenox mayor and congressional hopeful Tim Baldermann's campaign has taken two hard hits in the last ten days, with allegations of misrepresenting endorsements in campaign literature and a Baldermann campaign co-chair arrested for DUI.
The candidates running for Jerry Weller's seat should declare if they will promise to investigate Weller's malfeasance. The 11th congressional district should know if they are owed compensation for the misuse of his office.
