Since the 2002 redistricting, the northern half of the 18th Representative District lies in the 10th Congressional District, so naturally (I thought) it made sense, despite the odd date, to hang out on Halloween with the district-wide group, 10th Congressional District Democrats, that Lauren Beth Gash has invigorated up north, especially since Howard Dean was the guest speaker. Apparently too many folks must have felt the New Trier Democratic dinner the week before was enough 10th CD action for them, since a number of candidates weren't present. But I thought it worthy enough to both attend and blog.
I know there's the whole money thing, but really I think the trade offs are worth it. Often especially if your opponent is breezing into their primary slot. So the voters in the 10th are going to be treated to an exciting action-packed Democratic primary and then be ready for the real thing come September.
I have to admit to being among those that think Seals should have gracefully bowed out. I also agree that having a election-tested and winning Hamos taking on an also election-tested Coulson is better than an already tried and unsuccessful Seals taking her on.
Despite his office being bombarded with calls from rabid, out-of-state Rush Limbaugh listeners, Mark Kirk did a good job of representing his district when he became one of eight Republicans who voted for the Waxman-Markey energy and jobs bill.
Now that he's running for US Senate, his district is a top target for Democrats. Announced candidates are already appealing to eco-voters in the 10th Congressional.
I'm pretty far from the district, but I know about the strong environmental record of Julie Hamos, who declared her candidacy today. She has been particularly outspoken on the Clean Car Act and energy efficiency, which are both mentioned on her issues page.
Mark Kirk likes to pretend that he's a moderate. But the fact is, he's no moderate -- he's voted with George Bush 90% of the time. By comparison, the ultra conservative Peter Roskam has voted with George Bush 90% of the time.
At least Roskam is honest. Mark Kirk doesn't have Roskam's integrity. Despite being the chosen candidate for the Club for Growth, Kirk has long pretended that he was "independent" and a political moderate. Kirk obviously thinks that his constituents are stupid.
So it came as no surprise when the Neo-Con independent group, Freedom's Watch, invaded the IL-10's airwaves in support of Mark Kirk. While Kirk may try to represent himself as an independent or political moderate, inside the Beltway, his friends know that they can count on him. Just as they can count on ultra-conservative Peter Roskam.
So what's the difference between Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam?
Image, of course. In politics, image is everything. Voters are supposed to ignore the wizard behind the curtain.
Mark Kirk says that he's a moderate, but he has the same voting record (in this regard) as Peter Roskam. Mark Kirk says that he's independent, but he has the same loyalty towards the president and his party as Peter Roskam.
Peter Roskam will tell you that he's a conservative. At least he's honest about it. But that's probably because Roskam has stronger ties to his district than Mark Kirk. Roskam represents what he believes his district wants. Kirk pretends to.
Just received this in my email box from the Seals campaign:
SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, conducted the surveys for Roll Call on Saturday and Sunday (WHAS-TV in Louisville was a partner on the poll in Indiana's 9th district). Each poll tested more than 600 voters and had an error margin of roughly 4 points (for complete details, see chart at right).
In Illinois' 10th district, marketing consultant Dan Seals (D) led Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 52 percent to 44 percent.
Rest of the Roll Call story on IL-10 after the fold.
21st Century Democrats is running a contest to send field organizers to the top 3 Congressional candidates with netroots support. Dan Seals has made it to the 2nd (and final) round and needs your help.
Dan's Waukegan office was burglarized. Seals' campaign manager Pat Mogge said,
First they tried to break down the back door, then they hurled something through the front and they robbed us. Police are currently looking for suspects.
I am just happy that no one was hurt.
For those who have never been to the office, this is where we welcome voters, launch canvassing drives, host phone banks, and hold forums.
It is a vital part of our efforts to engage and support a community that has had more than its fair share of challenges.
I don't know who broke into our office, but I know we can't let them stop us.
A special ActBlue page has been set up to help the Seals Campaign rebuild in Waukegan. Here's some of what they are going to need to rebuild the Waukegan office:
Northside (Chicago) DFA sent three of us up into the northern suburbs to canvass for Dan Seals, who came close to beating Mark Kirk in '06. He's running again, starting with the people he recruited and teh lessons he learned last time.
Turns out that the campaign was holding a "United for Change" event before we went out. I'll talk more about that after the jump.
the campaign provided us with a list of supposedly swing voters. (In Illinois, where you don't register by party, this consists of people who don't vote in primaries or vote in different primaries different years.) So, in a couple of hours, two of us nearly covered the limited list of names we'd received from a precinct. The driver was in a different precinct with a walk sheet covering only half the precinct. My experience after the jump.
One thing that lately strikes me about Kirk's campaign is that it lacks a sense of proportion. Kirk and his supporters concentrate all of their time on issues that have little to no impact on the people of the district while completely ignoring everything that matters in our everyday lives, particularly how we were talked into a preemptive war based on lies and how it is affecting us today.
At least the Pioneer Press gets it. Yesterday, I ran across a Pioneer Press article that answers one of the Kirk campaign's burning questions about Dan Seals and puts it into proportion. Apparently, Dan Rostenkowski's wife wanted to give a contribution to Dan's campaign and Rostenkowski gave Dan an envelope after class (the class these same Kirk campaign personnel claimed didn't exist). Dan's campaign told Pioneer Press the donation was going to be returned. Minor situation if even a situation at all. Case closed. Proves the point that Dan is in fact teaching at Northwestern, doesn't it?
the reality is setting in. barack obama is going to be the democratic presidential nominee, and he will have long coattails here in illinois. how long? well, we read that county commission candidates are worried:
"I could lose to Barack Obama," the board member whispered.
and they would be several slots down on the ballot. who's next, after the presidential nominees? yep, those congressional races. and the collar counties -- those counties that surround cook -- will be the places where an excited democratic activist and voter base will be felt the most.
We've been following teh presidential election and some close (and, for my part, one not-so-clse) elections locally.
After the jump are two elections which went as expected.
again, the most important news is that early voting has begun. for those who live in illinois' 10th congressional district, the ballot positions for the primary election are:
After a short 11-month campaign and a lot of hard work, Dan shocked the pundits and incumbent Mark Kirk by winning 47 percent in the election. Dan is vying for the seat again in 2008, and this time with even more support.
This page has been critical of Oberweis' campaign tactics, particularly his vitriolic anti-immigration message. He has acknowledged that he made mistakes in past campaigns. He has a much better grounding on national issues than Lauzen, and to our knowledge, has never tried to change his name to Jim Oberweis, Dairy King.
this race isn't generating as much coverage as the others, simply because it is turning out to be not much of a race. the endorsement interview at the chicago tribune can be found here:
if you watch this video, which was ended abruptly where others were extended, the interviewer asks jay footlik the question that is on everyone's mind: why are you running, and "risk the possibility of perhaps splitting sensibilities among democrats when he (seals) came so close last time?" it's the question on many democrat's minds in the tenth.
The stunning revelation by U.S. Intelligence bureaucracies that Iran shut down it's nuclear bomb program in 2003 will have an impact on the Seals/Kirk race in the Illinois 10th congressional district. Keeping the wind in the sails of fear of Iran as a dangerous enemy of Israel has been a staple of authoritarian politics in places where there is a significant Jewish population. Illinois' tenth is a classic example. Even as recently as two days ago comments on this blog reflected those concerns.
Now we here and Dan Seals in the tenth do not have access to the kind of information that was recently released. But what we do have is access to arms control wonks like those at ArmsControlWonk.com What this recent disclosure by the official Intelligence community does is validate the same kind of analysis that has been put forward by high quality blogging of a type put out by ArmsControlWonk.
Wow.
The IC says Iran suspended its clandestine weapons program in Fall 2003. (The NIE and the DDNI statement)
I can't quite believe the IC agrees with something that Paul Kerr and I have been arguing was possible for years - that the bureaucratic consolidation undertaken in late 2003 may have choked off the clandestine program, at least for now. I mean, we were just making educated guesses.
The contest will be one of the most expensive in the nation. Third quarter fund-raising reports gives Seals $498,872 cash on hand; Footlik, making his first run for office, has a $414,018 warchest. The winner faces Kirk, who has stockpiled $1.5 million and has no primary opponent.
"The issue here," carol marin says, "is whether the battle between Seals and Footlik will splinter Jewish voters, sap each campaign of cash and strength in the primary, and give Kirk the advantage he needs to capture a fifth term."
We know someone else from the 10th who doesn't like to speak to audiences that are unfriendly, but I'm pretty sure we're having this election to replace that guy.
Footlik has got to be ready to throw in the towel at this point if he thinks he can get away with pulling a "Mark Kirk" in the heart of his district.
This is the type of leadership we can expect from Jay? If I don't like what you might have to say, I'm not showing up at all? That's pathetic, and even if there was no shot in hell, you show up and take your drubbing like a man.
What kind of message does that send to the few Footlik supporters who have gone out on a limb to support him?
There is really no way to spin this from Jay's angle, either he's getting ready to exit the race, or he's heading for a major ass kicking.
a couple of years ago, when howard dean came to chicago to thank those who helped him run for president, he asked why i thought he lost. "you didn't ask anyone for their vote," i told him. fundamental mistake. less than six months later, when he decided to run for dnc chair, he called me: "i'm going to ask everyone for their vote!" what a difference a change in tactics makes.
so color me surprised when jay footlik, who says he's running for the democratic nomination in the 10th congressional district, failed to show up to the new trier democratic organization's endorsement session on sunday. just didn't show. now you'd think that he'd know the importance of showing up to slating sessions, given the fact that the only incumbents the cook county democratic party didn't endorse were those who didn't show up! but jay is from d.c., and he apparently didn't know the history of endorsement sessions in the chicago area. (it really is different in d.c.)
but that wasn't the most incredulous part. several people spoke up on jay's behalf, and their message was broadly the same: dan seals is a nice guy (ok, he is), but jay's more electable.
