Hastert to Retire Soon - Like This Year

by: mickleib

Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 16:50:07 PM CDT


( - promoted by poemless)

Political Wire is reporting that Dennis Hastert will step down from his Congressional seat this November, and will not wait until 2008. That will trigger a special election for the seat, which is very much up for grabs.

According to Political Wire:

Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) "would get to pick the date of both of the special general election and the special primary election (with separate ballots for each party). The general election would have to be within 120 days of the vacancy (meaning by early March, if the November 6 resignation date holds). February 5 is the date for Illinois's presidential and congressional primaries, and slating the special election -- either the primaries or the general -- on that date would save state money."

  With Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) on the presidential primary ballot, this could draw more Democrats to the polls.

  "On net, Hastert's early resignation, by stirring the pot, gives Democrats a slightly better chance in this Republican district."

Is the early analysis correct? Will this make the seat a better shot for Dems? I think it does, if only because the special election would likely be held at the same time as the Presidential primary on February 5. Obama is extremely popular in Illinois, and I can see no reason the Democratic Governor there won't schedule the special election on a day when Illinois Democrats will already be out in force.

Cross-posted at DailyKos
mickleib :: Hastert to Retire Soon - Like This Year
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Hastert to Retire Soon - Like This Year | 35 comments
Thanks for crossposting (0.00 / 0)
I have some questions:

How much credibility does Political Wire have?

Who would take over the seat between the time he steps down (if he does) and the special election?

And who is the favored D-candidate in thsi race?  Laesch?  Anyone have any feelings about Foster?

Answers (0.00 / 0)
Political Wire has a lot of credibility. It's a great, nonpartisan site that I'd really recommend checking out. As for who is the favorite in the race, I have no idea, not from the area. I'd imagine the seat would stay empty between when he resigns and the special election...
[ Parent ]
FWIW (0.00 / 0)
This news really comes from an "Illinois Republican Source" to the Evans-Novak Political Report.

My understanding is that the seat would be empty until the election.

The favored candidates would have to be, I think, Laesch (D) and Lauzen (R), simply because they have the greatest organization in the district right now (and highest name ID especially in Laesch's case).

I think that if this happens it greatly helps Laesch. (In the primary, not necessarily the general.) He'd benefit the most from a short campaign season and whoever wins the special election primary is definitely going to have a leg up for the real primary. The only way I see it hurting is if the candidate gets crushed in the special election general and voters decide that they aren't electable and move to a different candidate. I don't see that happening though...

ltsply2

[ Parent ]
I think you are underestimating (3.00 / 1)
the role of money in this election.  In the first six months of this year:

http://query.nictusa...
http://query.nictusa...

Laesch raised raised about $12K and spent about $11K, ending up with $4,939 cash-on-hand as of June 30th.  For someone who was the Democratic nominee last year, and who has been planning to run again ever since then, having $5K in the bank is pretty skimpy.

Contrast that with Jotham Stein, who had $32K cash on hand and Bill Foster, who had $103K cash on hand as of June 30th.

Having a ground game and motivated supporters and history/name recognition (do you have a source that would support the idea that Laesch has high name recognition among likely voters?) in the district is an advantage that Laesch may have at this point, but you need enough money to do basic campaign activites, like send mailings and print literature and have some staff. I am not seeing how Laesch will have the money to do even those basic things.  And someone like Foster, who can self fund, can hire people to do many of the things that he may not yet have volunteers to do, giving him an instant ground game. 

Basic stuff: The common wealth should be used for the common good, not to enrich the well-connected few.  

[ Parent ]
Long term (0.00 / 0)
For a real election I agree with you, but if the special primary for the special general election is quick (which it would have to be if the special general has to be within 120 of the resignation) then there simply isn't that much time for the money to work. Money helps to buy you name recognition, an organization, etc. but if you don't have time for it to come together then what good does the money do? I'm not saying it wouldn't work, but clearly Laesch has a better chance of weathering his money situation if the time period is shorter.

All this implies that the understanding of state law on this is correct. I don't know whether it is or not. If it is then wow is that inefficient. A special primary and special general? Within that short a time frame? What a waste of time and money...

ltsply2

[ Parent ]
An early election would make organization more important (0.00 / 0)
Money is fine, as long as the volunteers are in place. Laesch has more name recognition, and is more comfortable with the county-fair set. Volunteers are more committed that quickly assembled mercenaries...
[ Parent ]
laesch's actual name recognition is low... (0.00 / 0)
according to the exit polls (from last november).  money is the most decisive factor in special elections, organization though should not be ignored.

the real question is, does laesch actually have an organization worth the name.  the only way -- i repeat, THE ONLY WAY -- that laesch could nullify the financial advantages of foster and stein would be to have people in every single precinct in the district.  i don't think he's done that, and i'm not convinced that he's even capable of doing that.  the "laesch is more organized" myth is self-serving (it's actually the only advantage he has, so he should tout it), but it fails the metrics.

and, yes, i realize that laesch supporters resent objective, insightful commentary on his flawed candidacy...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
Question for you (0.00 / 0)
Because maybe I'm just naive on this fact. How long does it take for one to reasonably go from no presence to "on-the-air" with a reasonable name recognition and enough of an organization to be tenable in a race of this magnitude? Would two months do it? (Assuming first that money is not an object (Foster) or that it is something you have to do as well (Stein)...)

The main thing that strikes me about the special election is just how short the time would have to be between the resignation and the special election primary.

ltsply2

[ Parent ]
it can be done in six weeks... (0.00 / 0)
or about the normal period one has for a special election.  john has time to catch up...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting
[ Parent ]
Man, you do have a burr up your ass about Laesch. (0.00 / 0)
Yes, it's money and organization.  You have been talking about if all along and I think we get it.  But I think the real question is whether Laesch is, at this moment, more organized than Foster and Stein.  You need to show us that he is not.  If he is, then he has a base he can build on. 

"Laesch is more organized" myth?  More organized compared to whom?  He was not more organized than Hastert.  I think that at the moment he is more organized than his Democratic primary opponents.  Do THEY have someone in each precinct?  Does Foster get to ignore organization with his million dollar pledge to himself? 

In your "objective and insightful" commentary, you don't give us a comparative analysis.  Maybe you can hold off on the self praise for a while and do a real analysis.

Omnes vulnerant, postuma necat

[ Parent ]
i would assume that laesch is more organized... (0.00 / 0)
than foster or stein at this moment.  that is an advantage from having run before.  is he organized enough?  you know, i'm only going from my personal observation and the people i know who live in the district.

and i was responding to the bullshit assertion that a ground game wins special elections.  that's beyond absurd, it tells me very definitely that this person doesn't know anything about special elections.  it's much easier to buy name recognition and credibility than to earn it, and it's more important in special elections simply because you don't have the time to develop your ground game.

and do not ignore the advantage that foster and stein have with professional, experienced campaign people running their campaigns.  i believe in the grass/netroots, but i don't think i've ever met anyone within those communities that have run a special election or had to ramp up immediately...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
"Objective"? (0.00 / 0)

the only way -- i repeat, THE ONLY WAY -- that laesch could nullify the financial advantages of foster and stein would be to have people in every single precinct in the district.

Funny, your definition of "objective" sounds just like my definition of "hyperbole".

Jeffrey Hearn
Research Director, Friends of John Laesch, Democrat for U.S. Congress (IL-14)


The Progressive Fox -- www.progressivefox.com

[ Parent ]
well, i have the advantage of memory as well.. (2.00 / 1)
after all, joe not only gave his permission, he dared people to challenge john's petitions.  i suspect it's inevitable that his petitions will be challenged and that the laesch campaign will be trying to stay on the ballot when foster and stein are trying to win voter's support.

when you meant hyperbole, you may have been thinking about that...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
i'm sorry that you did not understand the comment... (2.00 / 1)
please re-read it and you will see that your response doesn't make any sense (or at least, i am not capable of answering it since it has no relation to what i said).


The Progressive Fox -- www.progressivefox.com
[ Parent ]
For a "Research Director"... (2.00 / 1)
...you sure seem to have a lot of time on your hands to blog! Also, you're not doing your candidate any favors by acting snotty in his name.
[ Parent ]
You may wish to note (2.00 / 1)
that I was replying to bored with his own words.  Hardly cause for invoking the "S" word, I should think.  But even if it were, Bridget, a pot might want to think twice before calling the kettle black.


The Progressive Fox -- www.progressivefox.com
[ Parent ]
The difference (2.50 / 2)
You are apparently forgetting that I am not representing a candidate here. By signing your name, Jeffrey, you ARE. Big difference.

I couldn't care less what you say to bored. I couldn't care less if you make your candidate look bad, either. Just sayin'.

[ Parent ]
reply to all (3.20 / 5)
we need to rate comments more, especially folks who are not directly involved in the negative back-and-forth.  the rating system is actually supposed to be used to address the civility of the comments, not whether you agree with it or not.  while it now seems like commenting about the needless negativity in another's comment usually only makes things worse, i think that if everybody who read the exchange rated the needlessly negative comment low, we might be able to better keep a civil tone here.  i think some comments may not be understood as being as needlessly negative by their author as most of those reading it feel it is.  getting a better sense of the entire community's feelings about this might help.  and since the record of who rated which comments which way is visible, we can all also see whether or not a rating might be due to something else besides the feeling that the comment represents a breakdown in civility.

taking part in this little act of democracy might help us get a little more of that larger sense of democracy around here also.  thanks.

William J Maggos

[ Parent ]
Disappointed (4.00 / 1)
I'm disappointed that people have chosen to snipe at each other rather than answer questions others have posed.

Mine (below) has to do with the contracted campaign period. I understand the necessity as it is better than going for a long period without representation but would like to know where the authority comes from.

[ Parent ]
Am very much afraid (0.00 / 0)
you are spitting into the wind if you are expecting anything like civility - or self-policing - to be a factor in discussions revolving around IL-14 on Prairie State Blue. 

Please note you have been troll-rated by a front-pager on this site for daring to make the suggestion that participants on this site offer feedback in an attempt to elevate this tone. 

Does that not say it all?

This diarist has cross-posted this diary to DKos - I would suggest you go there if you are interested in participating in a dialog on a site where the culture encourages the troll-rating of, oh, actual trolls instead of those who are asking for reasoned democratic debate conducted in civil tones.

[ Parent ]
Prairie State Blue (4.00 / 1)
i want this site to be the place for Illinois progressives to come together, so im gonna keep at it.  please dont write it off, and instead do what you can to help and get others to as well.

and about spitting in the wind, thats what we progressives are best at.

William J Maggos

[ Parent ]
yes, john laesch is divisive... (0.00 / 0)
and i don't know why.  it's not about il-14 because we've had reasonable conversations about il-14.  it just about laesch, and his use of chicago machine tactics, his decision to out another blogger (falsely, at that!), and the fact that he doesn't want to do the work required to win.

there's a complete litany of questions about john and his campaign that remain unanswered.  i don't imagine that they will ever be answered.  your record of silence on these questions demonstrates that you don't care about reasoned democratic debate whatsoever. 

but it's also about your need to silence those who speak truth.  isn't it interesting that the people involved with politics in the state don't support john or think he's a kook?  isn't it interesting that you (and others) have no explanation for this -- except your argument that it's just an isolated few?

and i completely agree, my belief that the contention by some that racism, or racist argument or racist framing should be tolerated here IS OBSCENE does say it all.  we all know where i stand.  'nuff said...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
cmon bored (0.00 / 0)
i dont think anybody objects to your list of issues with the Laesch campaign and nobody is trying to silence that.  repeating it over and over again borders on annoying, but thats all.  its about the tone, like the third paragraph in your comment, including the "kook" comment.

and if you want to bring up the obama diary, i still dont think weve gotten to the bottom of that.  i dont think this medium is best for continuing that discussion though.  i wish youd just pick up the phone or return an email.  losing a friend and co-volunteer to that dustup blows my mind. 

William J Maggos

[ Parent ]
my guess is its just the tone of the comments (n/t) (0.00 / 0)


William J Maggos
[ Parent ]
Not exactly. (3.00 / 2)
It is true that Borednow is a political consultant and there are some people out there who think of him almost as highly as he thinks of himself.  He has provided a great deal of good nuts and bolts knowledge about what one needs to do to win a political campaign.

What is objectionable is when he makes a personal political opinion on a candidate's personal suitibility (and yes, we get it; he doesn't like Laesch) and tries to dress it up as as an objective political analysis.  As he himself knows, since he has helped elect a few himself, whatever Laesch's shortcomings may or may not be they pale against the gross corruption of hundreds of scumbags we have seen win elections for the Republican Party, including the guy who did win the Congressional race in the 14th district last year.  While Bored's insights in the running of a campaign are valuable as the point of view of a professional, his comments about Laesch's fitness as a candidate are just his personal opinion and no better or worse than anyone else's personal opinion about any candidate.

He has, in other words, not transcended personal opinion, however great he believes himself to be.

Omnes vulnerant, postuma necat

[ Parent ]
oh, come on... (0.00 / 0)
there's nobody out there who thinks more highly of me than i think of myself.  don't be ridiculous.  it's not like i am open with people about my life or accomplishments.

and, no, uni, you don't get it.  i can't speak to john's suitability.  that's for voters to decide.  i can only speak to a.) what i observe and b.) what i know.  i have been able to observe john campaigning (since 2004) and i know voters who speak to me about this race.  i don't believe i have suggested otherwise.

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
Exit polling reveals that money the CANDIDATES had was the decisive factor? (0.00 / 0)
I do not understand this. Why do people care how much $$ a candidate raised as opposed to their stance on issues, likeability, etc. ??
[ Parent ]
i'm sorry that you did not understand the comment... (0.00 / 0)
please re-read it and you will see that your question doesn't make any sense (or at least, i am not capable of answering it since it has no relation to what i said).

unless you are trying to change my claim.  and then i still can't answer it because it has no relation to what i said!

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
Resigning not Retiring (0.00 / 0)
I saw the same blog post & sent it out thru the SIDems discussion group.  This a.m. I saw a news article saying that he's not retiring he's RESIGNING to help Oberweis.  Don't know the difference except the retirement check.  Either way, he'll be a private citizen capable of just about anything -- along with Rove.

Qui tacet consentire videtur - "Whoever seems silent, consents."
[ Parent ]
Link (4.00 / 1)
Here's the Political Wire link.

ltsply2
Added (0.00 / 0)
And made some minor formatting edits for copyright purposes...
[ Parent ]
the big advantage for Dems (0.00 / 0)
is if all the Dem constituencies can be brought to bare at the same time.

If the unions, activists and patronage workers can all be made available then the Dems have a big advantage in the ground game.

Having a special election on primary day sorta negates this advantage. Many of the unions, activists and patronage workers will be committed to other races.

Preferred election date (3.00 / 1)
If I'm not mistaken, wouldn't we want the general special election to be on the same date as the statewide primary election for President?  That way, all the Obama Democrats would be out in force and would, most likely, simply pull the Democratic lever in the special election as well.  If the special election primary is the same date as the Presidential primary, what good would that do?  So a ton more Democrats end up voting in the Democratic special election primary.  Who cares?  I want higher turnout over the Republicans in the general special election, not in the primary special election.

Or am I missing something? 

Special Election on Date of Primary (0.00 / 0)
About filling U.S. Rep. vacancies:

According to the US Constitution and state law, the governor of the state calls for a special election to replace the vacant House seat. The full election-cycle must be followed including political party nominating processes, primary elections and a general election, all held in the congressional district involved. The entire process often takes as long as from three to six months.

So the usual "days prior to" filing dates wouldn't apply?

FILING DATES: ESTABLISHED PARTY: Not more than 99 nor less than 92 days prior to the General Primary, October 29 - November 5, 2007.
INDEPENDENT: Same as ESTABLISHED PARTY, October 29 - November 5, 2007
NEW PARTY: Not more than 141 nor less than 134 days prior to the General Election, June 16-23, 2008.

If someone could point me to the Illinois law that contains the 120 days rule and how much play the governor has in setting the "prior to" filing dates I'd be much obliged. If the "prior to" filing dates still apply AND we want the general primary to be the special election date too, we'd have to start the processes now, not in November. So is it that the resignation announcement triggers the governor to set the special election, or the actual vacancy?

Hastert to Retire Soon - Like This Year | 35 comments
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