| Though I still think this would be an incredibly tough race, here are a few things that might give us an edge that we didn't have in 2006:
1. Netroots interest
What actually started me looking at this race again was a diary on DailyKos talking about what Dem primary races the netroots could target that would help get rid of a few the congresscritters who voted for recent Iraq war funding bill. This particular diariest rated Lipinski as "high priority."
During the 2006 primaries most of the focus of the netroots was on getting a Democratic majority in congress. However, this time around I think there will much more interest in the primaries. Plus, lets face it, the netroots are just plain BIGGER and more organized then they were even a year ago. Though it is true they can't really deliver the boots on the ground, they can help with two very important things: fundraising and media narrative.
2. Fundraising
Speaking of fundraising, in 2006 John Sullivan, the progressive candidate who ran against Lipinski and got trounced, only raised $127,226 (and spent $126,926). I don't mean to make make light of the work that he went through to raise that -- raising $127K is not easy, especially for a first time candidate. And John himself told me that many of the potential donors he talked to said that they had been told to give all of their money to Duckworth. But in a primary with over 88,000 voters, $127K barely gets you one mailing, if that. So, more money could change the equation.
Though $127K is no small potatoes, I think that with some concentrated efforts from the netroots and the local grassroots we could do a lot better than that this time around. Especially when you consider that NUMEROUS candidates in our recent Chicago Aldermanic races raised well over $200K. If we can do it for them, we should be able to do it for a congressional race.
FYI, Lipinski spent about 240K during that election. It's hard to say what the machine spoiler candidate spent, since the only report from them was filed two weeks before the election, and shows them raising $78K and spending $0. And obviously he spent more than zero. You can take a look for yourself here:
http://query.nictusa...
Is there some way to report them for not filing anything after that? Or is that one of those "accountability" things that our government doesn't have time for ....
3. New Allies
One of the things that makes this district so impossible is that a large part of it is composed of some of the toughest machine strongholds, including the wards where Mike Madigan, John P. Daley, and Ed Burke are the committeemen. However, there are a few new faces on the scene:
- State Rep. Karen Yarbrough was elected as Proviso Township Committeeman in 2006, and as the author of the resolution to impeach George Bush, she certainly can't be a Lipinski fan. Now, who knows if she would want to get involved, and only part of Proviso township is in the 3rd CD, but none the less, it is more than we had before.
- The 3rd CD also includes small parts of Chicago's 3rd Ward, 15th Ward, 16th Ward and 20th Ward. All four of these wards now have new, non-machine Aldermen: Pat Dowell, Toni Foulkes, Joann Thompson and Willie Cochran, respectively. Though they may not be interested in getting involved in this, we certainly have a better shot of getting their help, or the help of their supporters, than we did with the people they replaced. And it is likely that many of them WILL be getting involved in the Democratic Committeeman races, which will be going on at the same time, since in three of these wards the Alderman they just beat IS the Democratic Committeeman. Yikes!
Again, this is just a small part of the 3rd CD, but every precinct counts, and having just a few of them in the control of potential allies is an advantage we didn't have in 2006.
4. Media narrative
It is hard to get the media to cover a story unless it fits into a larger theme they already believe exists. I think that this race could fit into their current theme of "backlash" from the "far left" against pro-war Dems. Which means our candidate could get more publicity than in 2006. And lately they seem to enjoy writing stories about the "weakening" Chicago machine. Our candidate could get some press from that as well. And, of course, shaping and pushing media narratives is an area where the netroots can come in really handy, as I mentioned in point 1.
I WISH we could get the media to pay attention to the "democracy is being subverted by candidates being *selected* by committeemen instead of *elected* by the people" story -- but so far they don't seem to be interested in that one! ;-) (Lipinski got into office when his dad dropped out at the last minute and the Cook County Dem Committeeman voted him into his dad's place. Which, as we all know, is the same way we got Todd Stroger).
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Of course, the big thing we are missing right now is a candidate. Without someone willing to take on that huge, huge challenge, then all of our speculation is for naught. What I really wish is that we had some sort of "Third District Progressive Democrats" group who could be, perhaps, actively seeking a candidate. I understand that that's how Dan Seals came to run in the 10th District -- the 10th District Dems recruited him. If anyone knows of such a thing please do share. I heard a rumor about a Latino candidate running, but who knows if that is true or not.
However, I think this is a race that definitely bears watching. And it is possible that there is someone out there who is considering running but wondering where they can go for support -- perhaps if they know that the progressive grassroots and netroots are interested it will help them decide to run.
As a final offering for those who are still reading this long diary, below is a list of the townships and wards that make up the 3rd CD. And this list may not be 100% correct -- it was a bit difficult to piece together from the maps I had. But it gives a sense of where/what we are talking about:
TOWNSHIPS (part of)
- Berwyn Township, Dem Committeeman Robert J Lovero
- Riverside Township, Dem Committeeman John Toman
- Proviso Township, Dem Committeeman Karen Yarbrough
- Lyons Township, Dem Committeeman Steven Landek
- Stickney Township, Dem Committeeman Michael Looney
- Palos Township, Dem Committeeman Samuel Simone
- Worth Township, Dem Committeeman Dennis MaGee
WARDS
- Ward 11 (almost all of it), Dem Committeeman John P. Daley, Alderman James Balcer
- Ward 13 (almost all of it), Dem Committeeman Michael Madigan, Alderman Frank Olivio
- Ward 19 (almost all of it), Dem Committeeman Matthew J. O'Shea, Alderman Virgina Rugai
- Ward 23 (almost all of it), Dem Committeeman Michael Zalewski, Alderman Michael Zalewski
- Ward 16 (mid-sized part of it), Dem Committeeman Shirley Coleman, Alderman Joann Thompson (was Coleman)
- Ward 15 (small part of it), Dem Committeeman Theodore Thomas , Alderman Toni Foulkes (Thomas retired)
- Ward 18 (small part of it), Dem Committeeman John Joiner, Alderman Lona Lane
- Ward 14 (small part of it), Dem Committeeman Edward Burke, Alderman Edward Burke
- Ward 3 (a tiny part), Dem Committeeman Dorothy Tillman, Alderman Pat Dowell (was Tillman)
- Ward 20 (a tiny part), Dem Committeeman Arenda Troutman, Alderman Willie Cochran (was Troutman)
Maps:
http://www.govtrack....
http://maps.cityofch... |
