Cohen Out - Open Thread

by: wegerje

Sun Feb 07, 2010 at 21:20:26 PM CST


Chicago Breaking News breaks the news.
wegerje :: Cohen Out - Open Thread
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Cohen Out - Open Thread | 32 comments
No surprise to some of not so breathless as to be... (0.00 / 0)
hyperventilating.
Who will replace him? (0.00 / 0)
While other blogs have touted State Rep. Art Turner (who finished second to Cohen in the primary), I don't see that as very likely for several reasons.  Selecting Turner would give the Democrats a state ticket of seven Cook County residents, four of who would be African-American.  That may not be the best way to battle a Rethug ticket that will likely have three Downstaters.

Turner's ties to Mike Madigan may also come into play, given the fact that Madigan has blocked attempts in the past to require candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor to run as a team in the primary (which would have avoided this mees in the first place).  The fact that Turner's replacement in the Illinois House will be his son, Arthur Turner Jr., may not help much either.

If a suitable Downstater can not be found (remember that the city members of the State Central Committee will have enough weighted votes to decise the issue), may I suggest as a suitable reform candidate Water Reclamation District Commissioner M. Frank Avila.  Comm. Avila, who was elected to the MWRD Board in 2002 with an independent campaign to become the first professional civil engineer ever elected to the MWRD Board, would add a Hispanic to the ticket.  He would provide a choice that has been vetted by the voters four times in the past 12 years, a candidate that interacts well with the public, one that works well with other Democrats and one who is not going to be blocking the long-term political plans of other leading Democrats (Comm. Avila is in his early 70s).  In short, a choice that can quickly and effectively put the Scott Lee Cohen debacle behind us, and behind us quickly.

given Cohen's issues and the gender imbalance (0.00 / 0)
It seems adding a woman to the ticket makes sense.

Julie Hamos would allow the Dems to improve the gender balance while keeping a Jew on the ticket.

Getting outside Cook County, if not Chicago, would be nice.

Linda Chapa LaVia would allow Dems to add a Latina to the ticket. Miguel De Valle is Latino and reasonably credible. But the ticket is too Chicago already.

Hynes might be an asset. He certainly contrasts well with Plummer and people would feel comfortable if Hynes became governor.

Sen. John Sullivan is from western Illinois and is a hard campaigner. I think both his rep districts are represented by Republicans.

Lauren Beth Gash is Jewish and is from outside Cook County. Plus she's more likable than Hamos (IMO).

David Hoffman is Jewish and has Puerto Rican ancestry. He lives in Chicago, but he's seems like he's more from the North Shore.

Raja Krishnamoorthi is someone I'd feel good about. He seems sharp. And having roots in Peoria and Hoffman Estates is a nice geographic balance.

Jeff Schoenberg?

[ Parent ]
David Orr (0.00 / 0)
Executive/administrative experience; impeccable credentials re integrity; "Chicago" but without negative cachet; known widely in suburbs due to administration of Cook Co. elections, vital stats throughout county, etc. A good campaigner. Did I mention a tidy warchest?
[ Parent ]
Hamos. (4.00 / 1)
Great minds flow in the same channels, and I'm complimented that my mind is flowing in the same channels as Nyberg's.

I came on teh blog to suggest Julie Hamos for LG.

This is the second time in my memory that a LG nominee has badly embarassed teh Democratic party.

It's time that progressives took the office seriously. Quinn did, and look what that got him -- and us.

[ Parent ]
If Randy can suggest his partner, I suggest my wife. (0.00 / 0)
She's nice, female, and people like her.
[ Parent ]
I didn't notice it the first time (0.00 / 0)
I guess I didn't read all of Randall's post.

Look, O'Brien just got beat badly. He's the chair of MWRD.

If the chair of MWRD didn't win president of the Cook County Board, it's hard to see one of the lower ranking members jumping to lieutenant governor.

I'm onboard with the idea that Latino candidates should be considered. But I wouldn't put Frank Avila and my former housemate on that list.

[ Parent ]
I told you (0.00 / 0)
he'd drop out.

And I think the reason for Scott Lee Cohen's rapid exit is that people more persuasive than Quinn, Emanuel and Madigan explained things to Cohen.

It was an offer Cohen couldn't refuse.

I think Madigan (0.00 / 0)
explained the facts of life to him. He dropped out hours after their little conversation.
[ Parent ]
Winning in November (3.50 / 2)
Republicans have a strong candidate from central Illinois who will appeal to downstate swing voters.  Yes, there is a large block of moderate swing voters in central and western Illinois who helped put Blagojevich in office in '02, but switched to keep him down to barely 50% in '06.  It doesn't help that we have a Democratic ticket entirely from Chicago.  

Democrats need a downstater who's progressive enough to be non-controversial in Chicago, but who can still compete with Brady for votes in central and western Illinois.  We don't need to take the risk of dividing the base by picking someone who's anti-choice, anti-gay or otherwise too conservative.  That eliminates most of the conservative Democrats that the party likes to back in Southern Illinois.

The only names I can think of who fit that criteria are Senator Mike Frerichs, Representative Naomi Jakobsson, and Mike Boland.

Naomi Jakobsson seems a reasonable choice (3.00 / 2)
I can't see how Boland can get the call b/c he finished so low in the primary. And he failed to effectively raise the issues about Cohen.

And he's a crappy fundraiser too.

Jakobsson at least held an executive office, if one with limited responsibilities.

Can she step up her game?

After the campaigns of Link, Turner, Boland, Hendon and Hamos, I'm a little suspicious people go to the General Assembly and get big heads but stop learning how to be effective campaigners.

[ Parent ]
Boland (3.50 / 2)
Boland raised issues about Cohen.  It's unfair to blame him for the press' decision to ignore what Boland said. There's no logic in suggesting that someone with zero votes in a statewide race has a greater mandate to be on the ticket than someone who essentially tied with three other challengers.

Boland stood by Quinn back when most of the party leadership was shunning him. We'll see if Quinn remembers who is friends are or if goes chasing after someone new.  

[ Parent ]
But that being said (3.00 / 1)
Jakobsson and Frerichs would both be strong candidates.  Maybe even Sheila Simon.  
[ Parent ]
Sheila Simon got buried by a Republican (0.00 / 0)
when she ran for mayor of Carbondale, right?

I like Sheila Simon, but does losing the mayor's race for Carbondale either qualify her for ltgov or suggest she'll be an asset on the campaign trail.

[ Parent ]
Who in turn... (0.00 / 0)
...got clobbered in the Republican Primary for Lt. Governor.

Look, there are a number of potentially fine candidates that could be selected.  The Democratic Party can now opt for someone who would not have been interested in a normal run for office (where they would have had to spend 18 months to get through the Primary and then the General Elections).  Hopefully the State Central Committee will select someone who can be a true asset to the ticket.  As has been described in these messages, there are a number of ways to accomplish this.  

[ Parent ]
last time you linked to Boland's blog post (0.00 / 0)
criticizing Cohen, but it failed to mention the damaging details.

I see the situation as Boland being too inept to raise the issues about Cohen.

We don't live in a world where the press does its job well. We live in a world where people on our side have to work to get the press to do its job.

Boland showed himself to be ineffective. And he had an ineffective campaign team.

Boland is a weak campaigner.

[ Parent ]
Whomever the choice is, and it should be an unassailable choice... (0.00 / 0)
if only to point out that the R Lt Gov. choice is not ready to be Governor, that person's not going to have to run their own campaign, so, everybody take a deep breath.
[ Parent ]
As I said: The R Lt Gov. candidate's problem's are starting to come out... (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
eh (0.00 / 0)
Granted that Boland didn't raise the money to put on a great campaign.  But all a LG candidate really needs to do is speak well at public events and hold press conference.  Both things Boland excels at.  
[ Parent ]
Boland didn't wow me at the IVI-IPO forum (0.00 / 0)
If he's great on the campaign trail, he must have had a bad day.
[ Parent ]
effective campaigners (4.00 / 1)
Julie was, from my nearby but somewhat removed POV, an "effective campaigner" in her recent race. She had to overcome extremely low name recognition in a district where, until running, she had not lived. She closed a late poll gap of, supposedly, 2:1. She raised a lot of money -- not my main metric of effectiveness but it covers a lot of sins.

Remember that districts are so gerrymandered many GA officeholders never have serious opposition. Julie had not had to campaign in a primary in a decade, and not at all in several cycles. Ditto Hendon, Turner.

Finally, results esp. in a multi-candidate race do not  reflect just the candidates' abilities but also the interactions, presuppositions, and performances of staff, media, the political community, and the voters, all of whom have responsibilities and influences on not only the candidate, but each other, and which are dynamic during the campaign. Not every aspect of a race is within one person's control. Try as one might.

[ Parent ]
i would hardly consider the 10th CD race... (4.00 / 1)
a multi-candidate race.  it would be the same as considering the 2008 presidential race a multi-candidate race.  technically, they were, but for purposes of serious discussion they were traditional two-person races.

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting
[ Parent ]
Hendon has had opposition (0.00 / 0)
Remember, Art Turner and Walter Burnett don't like Hendon, so they run candidates against him.

And Hendon was the one member of the legislature who performed above expectations in the ltgov race.

[ Parent ]
Forget it Carl! (0.00 / 0)
I'd sooner keep Cohen on the ticket than replace him with Hotdog Hendon, who is a bulljiving pile of political Kryptonite!
[ Parent ]
whether you want Cohen back or not, he's gone (0.00 / 0)
"My lieutenant governor beat up your president, Rickey 2010 (and vote for Quinn too)"

Randall, you just don't know the real Rickey Hendon. He's quite a guy.

[ Parent ]
would it be cheating if the Democratic Party (0.00 / 0)
did some polling and focus groups to determine the candidate?

With what constituencies does Quinn need help against Brady/Plummer? What candidate can help with those constituencies?

What candidate gives voters confidence and a feeling the Quinn team is going to do a good job governing?

I don't think it would be cheating (0.00 / 0)
but I don't think that's the way this party works.  As far as I can see, it works on the principle of "who's next on the list for a favor."
[ Parent ]
maybe a condorcet poll is in order (0.00 / 0)
Which candidates should be on the list?
We can do approval here. (0.00 / 0)
It's not Condorcet but it's pretty good. As soon as we get a narrowed down list we can put it up.

Or are you suggesting a Condorcet to get the narrowed down list?

Jeff Wegerson

[ Parent ]
Hamos Is REALLY Intriguing -- However ... (0.00 / 0)
... would there be a worry about picking a candidate that didn't run for LG? That it would look too much like a kingmaking decision (and if it's a kingmaking decision, we all know who the king on the IL Dem party side is) and make it too hard to pick someone like Hamos?

Or am I being far, far too rational?

Actually it would be more like the Federal (0.00 / 0)
process where the presidential winner picks their runnig mate. I think most folks would be comfortable with that. But yeah MJM has too much to say in the process.

Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
Its not at all like that, is it? (0.00 / 0)
Doesn't the State Central Committee pick?  With Mike Madigan as the presiding officer?
[ Parent ]
Cohen Out - Open Thread | 32 comments
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