Open Thread

by: wegerje

Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 20:22:43 PM CST


Tribune Results Page - They seem to be running slow.
wegerje :: Open Thread
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Open Thread | 25 comments
Holy Crap - A TEABAGGER Just Took The Repub Lead! (0.00 / 0)
And Quinn's holding his lead.

Luck of the Irish?

weird election day things... (0.00 / 0)
* cheryle jackson teaming up with stroger's field operation on election day was really a surprise.

* julie hamos' run (at least the times i saw her speak) seemed aimed at a better matchup with elizabeth coulson.  neither moved on from the primary.

* machine tactics still work (even in the obama era):

State House - District 23 - Dem Primary
Illinois - 68 of 69 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Burke , Daniel (i) Dem 4,414 50%
Lozano , Rudy Dem 3,980 45%
Diaz , Rene Dem 230 3%
Meza-Zavala , Martin Dem 153 2%

burke would be the white guy in an emerging majority hispanic district.  bet he loses a lot of hispanics in the remap.  who says we need civil/voting rights laws???

* raising money is still the key component to victory.  the old adage that a volunteer is worth 10 additional votes but a donor is worth 25 additional votes still holds.

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

bored, are you helping with the LWV, IVI-IPO, etc., ... (0.00 / 0)
remap ballot initiative?

And how cool about Chui Garcia?

[ Parent ]
Robyn Gabel will be a solid progressive (0.00 / 0)
for Evanston/Rogers Park. Shows how much I know, I thought that Jeff Smith would have been in the race.

Jeff, if you read this, perhaps you could give us an insider's take on why that race wend down the way it did.

Jeff Wegerson

[ Parent ]
Maybe, but will she stand up to Madigan like Jeff... (0.00 / 0)
would have, or, even Julie sometimes did.

Again, Iowa-type remap takes one of Madigan's tools out of the 'stay in line, or else' toolbox.

[ Parent ]
sometimes... (0.00 / 0)
backbones can be surgically implanted.  perhaps those concerned should sit down with her and have a "come to jesus" meeting.  me, i got the opposite problem.  i have a state senator who i'm helping who says, "if you're going to be progressive, be progressive!" but she sits in a moderately conservative/suburban-rural district.

will progressives help her?  probably not much.  there are not too many in bloom twp/will & kankakee counties.  i have to hope that voters don't see the "real" toi, realizing that her principles maybe shared by others, but that won't help her much...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
Robyn's essentially an extension of the Evanston group... (0.00 / 0)
and we'll see how much stepping out she does.  No one who sits in that seat's going to vote other than a progressive agenda, but, it's the other bits that count in a state that's run by the Four Tops, for the Four Tops (really the Top and a half).

Robyn's been spoken for positively by progressive friends like Clem Balanoff, and, as a lobbyist, is going to know how to get stuff done fairly quickly, but, that's not the razor's edge these days.  The real battle is not really going to be keeping the majority, but, what kind of majority that is.

I wish her luck, 'cause her success is our success.  

[ Parent ]
Top and a Half? (0.00 / 0)
Who's the half-Top? Cullerton?
[ Parent ]
Not without her Congressman's permission! (n/t) (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Bad penny's back. n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I agree that there (3.00 / 1)
is a Schakowsky machine that is willing to deal with the Machine machine whether it's the Madigan or Emanuel machine or whatever. Duckworth over Cegelis is a prime example. I agree also that Jeff has a history of understanding the nuances of anti-Madigan independence that Robyn may or not have. I agree further that having won with Schakowsky's endorsement means that current un-understood nuances will likely become Schakowsky "machine" nuances going forward.

Yet I expect that the Madigan machine will only be toppled by brute force and not nuanced maneuvers.

I actually expected Jeff to win. I told my wife that. I am now the laughing-stock of my household. But the fact that any of us might be a better representative is moot if none of us win elections. Frankly Jeff's loss and the scale of the loss bothers me more than Pera's loss to Lipinski. I was expecting a Pera loss but bothered by the scale.

If we northside progressives cannot mount a successful campaign with our own electorate on our home turf then we are doing a lot of things wrong. And in this case successful means even second place.

Jeff Wegerson

[ Parent ]
well... (0.00 / 0)
yes, we are doing a lot of things wrong.  i believe that i had previously made the point that jeff's campaign was a perfect test of some of the progressive myths out there.  there is great resistance to overturning these myths, which is why i sometimes question people's desire to win.  learning how to win was the first stage of the conservative movement's rise to power, because they sure the hell never abandoned the belief that they were right.  they simply learned after 1964 that being right was neither a sufficient nor even necessary condition to winning elections.

if i had the opportunity to ask jeff about his campaign, i think i'd start with a very simple one: how many voter contacts did the campaign make?

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
I said to EricV one time (0.00 / 0)
that what it takes to be a good blogger is the ability to say the same thing over and over slightly differently.

I'll be looking forward to your reposting of the 10 big myths of progressive political activists. Or whatever number.

As BobB says below, Jeff's race could be a chance to make an omelet out of a broken what-if egg.

Except on the other hand, I suspect that we bloggers think that just putting our fine critical minds to work on these questions counts as actually working on these problems/myths. I look at the experience of some of us and myself criticizing IVI and then slapping the imaginary dust off of our hands and saying ok what's the next problem we can solve with our fine critical minds.

This blog thingy makes it too easy to talk and think we've actually done something.

Even this comment/reply right here!

Jeff Wegerson

[ Parent ]
success (0.00 / 0)
If we northside progressives cannot mount a successful campaign with our own electorate on our home turf then we are doing a lot of things wrong. And in this case successful means even second place.

A local Democratic primary where at least 4 of the candidates are cast/perceived as very liberal is not a good test of anything, and standing in such a contest no metric. An enormous amount of the race in the 18th had very little to do with issues and a lot more to do with very local and/or very personal relationships or proxy contests. An elected official who says "we have to go to two-tier on pensions" backs a candidate who completely disagrees -- because of family ties. Etc., etc. The state rep race was being used for a lot of reasons that had absolutely nothing to do with governing Illinois. You have no idea.

Aside: The overlaps and distinctions between reform progressives and machine liberal (or liberal machine) continue to be a hard sell to any portion of the electorate. Re the 18th: that never really came up, except to the extent that one campaign was conducting a whispering campaign. The D2s came out too late for some of the proxy war aspects to really play out, and there was enormous pressure on every candidate, in a 5-way, not to be the one to go negative.

As to bored's #1 question below, the answer would be "thousands," and no I'm not being coy and really meaning 2,000. It was not as many thousands as we needed. A number of very local factors, including the Evanston budget crisis and New Trier referendum coinciding with the month before the primary, diminished "home turf" grassroots resources, and a plethora of other races peeled away lakefronters. A lot more progressive feet on the ground in 18 could have countered the direct-mail money-bomb that we knew would hit in January, but a perfect storm of perception and distraction operated to not mobilize that.

As it was, we had 100 election day volunteers, which is awesome! However, purely logistically, we needed that same number the two or three weekends before, or else more air support for the infantry.

[ Parent ]
Pardon my lack of sophistication, (0.00 / 0)
seriously. I have never run for office. You have and you have even won if I recollect correctly. So I appreciate any schooling you have to offer.

What I have done is volunteer and donate. In both cases I don't like to work for or back losers. It's a waste of my time and money. But I appreciate that it's difficult to tell ahead of time who has a serious chance. I believed ahead of time that you had a serious chance. And the way you describe the history of the campaign, my belief may have been perfectly accurate at the moment of the original belief. In this race, by pure chance I ended up donating to the winner and only because of a personal connection. The donation was out of obligation.

As the race proceeded and I saw no effort by Robyn to engage the progressive netroots nor IVI-IPO, it was my belief that she was making a strategic mistake that would contribute to her losing. Mind you, I harbor no illusions as to the strength of the progressive so-called movement. It's negligible. But I assumed that in a campaign you engage everywhere you can.

And perhaps she is to some extent lucky. The race was close enough that had some things gone differently she might have lost by exactly the amounts of votes she may have left on the table by not engaging the existing progressive infrastructure. And granted you had that infrastructure all sown up ahead of time. But still she should have contested it when and where the opportunity still existed. Just showing up would have garnered a lot of good will within the existing progressive infrastructure.

Lots of races

As you say there were a lot of races where the existing progressive infrastructure folks were working ("diminished 'home turf' grassroots resources, and a plethora of other races peeled away lakefronters.") So I am left wondering if there was a moment where you could have made a strategic decision to effectively abandon your campaign and disburse your resources elsewhere? Either within the 18th and/or other races?

That you or your campaign may have made mistakes really interests me less than whether we the progressive infrastructure made mistakes. Did we overreach and over commit, in other words?

Every time we lose, we discourage ourselves. We lose not only races but also enthusiasm and creditability for the next races. bored may focus on the tactics of winning too much for some, but without some winning, I think we all agree, we are headed into the dustbin of history.


Jeff Wegerson

[ Parent ]
Might as well post the link (0.00 / 0)
I have to admit that I would have preferred a young candidate over an older one. And I prefer a woman over a man. If all are reasonably progressive, of course.

I could have done without Mr. Stewart's long cynical "look-at-how-sophisticated-I-am" preface but other wise he seems to indeed be pretty sophisticated.

So now the question becomes, are the Keenan-Devlins of the world creating new or participating in the existing progressive institutions. His Citizen Action work and union endorsements suggest he is. He needs to find new residence out of the North-side Liberal Republic of Womenistan and start slaying some Republican dragons. (How am I doing Mr. Stewart?)

18th Illinois House District (Evanston): State Representative Julie Hamos is seeking the 10th U.S. House District Democratic nomination, opening this seat in the heartland of what is jocularly known as the People's Soviet Socialist Republic of Evanston. Five cookie-cutter liberal candidates are running: attorneys Jeff Smith, Ed Moran and Eamon Kelly, law student Pat Keenan-Devlin and child health coalition director Robyn Gabel. Other than age and gender, little differentiates them.

The seat was held by U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9) from 1990 to 1998, when she went to Washington and was replaced by Hamos. Schakowsky is supporting Gabel, age 56, whose base among social service and nonprofit groups is a powerful force in liberal politics. Gabel is the pure and demonstrable liberal.

Kelly, age 29, is a veritable child prodigy: Second-year associate at Jenner & Block, former intern to Governor George Ryan and Blagojevich's deputy governor Brad Tusk, and chief of staff to the Illinois State Board of Education. But is he too much of a superficial opportunist? His exalted resume raises doubts, but he was endorsed by Ronen and county Commissioner Larry Suffredin. Devlin, age 25, formerly was a lobbyist at Citizen Action, and he has been endorsed by the AFL-CIO and AFSCME unions. These young guys are splitting the "new generation" vote -- which is neither pure, true nor demonstrable, but their youth is creating a buzz. Is there a liberal quota for young white guys?

Smith, age 52, is a longtime activist and a former Democratic state central committeeman. He is endorsed by the liberal Democracy for America, three current or former Evanston mayors, six current or former Evanston aldermen and Chicago Alderman Joe Moore (49th). Smith is the practical liberal. He has ideas about tax increment financing reform and campaign reform, and he is no radical. In Evanston, the "Jan/Bob Machine," run by Schakowsky and her husband, Bob Creamer, dominates, but Smith's three decades in the political trenches has won him much support.

Moran, age 62, an attorney and an 18-year Evanston alderman, is the race's oddity. He is conservative and pro-life. What's he doing in a Democratic primary?

What's a liberal to do? Kelly is the opportunistic liberal, Gabel the pure liberal, Keenan-Devlin the embryonic liberal, Smith the proven liberal, and Moran the non-liberal. Advice: Pick Keenan-Devlin, a liberal who can terrorize Springfield for the next 30 years. However, the "Jan/Bob Machine" and the gender card give Gabel an edge.



Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
quick take (0.00 / 0)
As you know I do read here. Haven't had as much time lately to write.

With turnout so low, probably a mistake to over-analyze what are, in the end, pretty small numbers. So "scope" is really too big a word.

Among at least 20 other contributing causes, maybe the main is that in a 5-way, things can skew real fast as the informed try to gauge best use of their vote, while the uninformed go with first on ballot, last on ballot, gender and surname. Looking at MWRD, judges, lt gov, etc., these factors still hold.
Also, in a 5-way, one could be overall most popular, everyone's second choice, but come in last.
If horse race is the analogy, I got boxed in. And didn't/couldn't spend my way out of the pack.

Finally, we caught some rough breaks, but I may have to save some of those for the movie.

More later.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the reply. (0.00 / 0)
I'm sure you're drained. There will likely be criticism here but hopefully it will be kept civil. But as Barry Goldwater is said to have said, illegitimi non carborundum. The movie would be much appreciated here, Oscar or no.

Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
no one's talked to me about it.., (3.50 / 2)
you'd think after the number of sigs i produced for robin based entirely on volunteers, some would have hired me already!

in the yeah-its-entirely-bragging department, i put out 400 on the streets yesterday, only 49 of them compensated.  i don't know who's having trouble drumming up volunteers, but we've been able to extend the obama excitement and keep people engaged...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
cheryle jackson worked with keith jackson (0.00 / 0)
to pass lit in the 9th rep district (West Loop, Lawndale, UIC).

I suspect Jackson's team ascertained which Black candidates had field operations and worked with them.

What shocked me was that the guy placing the Quinn signs was also placing the O'Brien signs.

[ Parent ]
Pure speculation (0.00 / 0)
but after I had a conversation with a Black colleague here at work, one who followed the health care reform stuff carefully and is reasonably politically aware, did not discern a difference between Hynes and Quinn. Now granted in the general Quinn will get that vote but "progressives White" candidates maybe have a problem of not selling themselves to Blacks?

Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
What About the Harold Washington Ad? (0.00 / 0)
It struck me that the ad could backfire in the African-American community -- whether the content of the ad was true or not (and from what I've heard, it's iffy), the mere act of using the tape may very well have hurt Hynes.

In an election where the final margin was so small (though not as small as the Republican margin -- Nate Silver estimates Dillard will lose by literally one vote when it's all done) I don't know if you discount those kinds of optics. We may also never know, but it wouldn't surprise me to find out the Washington ad may have flipped enough African-American votes to Quinn to make a difference.

Pure speculation on my part, mind you.

[ Parent ]
You made my point (0.00 / 0)
If the Hynes ad had not run then what would Quinn have done to woo the Black vote?

Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
It did run, so, why bother with the what ifs? (0.00 / 0)
What if Daley and Byrne hadn't both run against Harold?  What if our male Senators hadn't been such pigs before the "Year of the Woman"?  What if Forrest Claypool had run this year instead of Toni (I know Forrest was asking that in his head, if I read his disgraceful appearances on the election return newscasts last night right)?

Eggs are broken, let's make some omelets.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure I'm following you here. (0.00 / 0)
I was speculating without the benefit of facts. Maybe I have it all wrong. Maybe Quinn did quite well, thank you, with the Black community. I suppose that my comments are not constructive since it is very unlikely that Quinn will need to woo the Black vote in the general. They know very well how to vote reliably Democratic.

Quinn is two things to me. One a politician who understands progressives and two one who has been around the block enough to know how to win campaigns. I think that that campaigning knowledge is what pulled him through. I guess I need to keep reminding myself that he really did in a way take on the machine here mano-a-mano and beat them. True the machine is not what it used to be, witness the Stroger exit stage right.

Of course there are millions of what-ifs in politics. But I'm expecting this one to have a happy ending.

So are you saying that Quinn likely had a plan to woo the Black vote but got lucky because Hynes dropped the ball in Quinn's lap?  

Jeff Wegerson

[ Parent ]
Open Thread | 25 comments
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