Could Jackson Pull Off a Braun?

by: wegerje

Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 10:50:22 AM CST


And if so how interesting is that for progressives? From OpenLeft:

Illinois Senate, Democratic primary polling

Poll Date Undecided Giannoulias Jackson Hoffman
Rasmussen Jan 25 24% 31% 23% 23%
PPP Jan 24 27% 32% 18% 20%
Tribune Jan 18 26% 34% 19% 16%
Tribune Dec 05 40% 31% 17% 9%

 
wegerje :: Could Jackson Pull Off a Braun?
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Could Jackson Pull Off a Braun? | 47 comments
What are her positions? (4.00 / 1)
She didn't answer the IVI-IPO questionnaire.
yes, Bob, (0.00 / 0)
but you can look at her website and see what she has to say.  She's pretty good on a lot of issues ... I just worry that Blago will go to trial in Sept. and Kirk will run negative ad after negative ad against her...  
[ Parent ]
I think that Blago bashing may be getting old hat (0.00 / 0)
and may even be counter-productive for Kirk.

Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
maven, I always worry about virtually unvetted candidates. (4.00 / 1)
for six-year offices.

This short season, the lack of press attention to anyone not Giannoulias or Hoffman, the late attention to the other races, where things have started coming out, etc.

With the current volatility in the electorate, we could end up with almost anything.  Including in the general.  I'm not sure that website declarations are what I'd base a six-year decision on.

[ Parent ]
Jacob Meister dropped out (4.00 / 1)
Jacob Meister has "dropped out" of the race, giving his "support" to Alexi. I use quotes because I am not sure how it is possible to really drop out after voting has already begun and you are on the ballot, nor is it clear what if any support he has to give to Alexi.

According to Lyn Sweet's blog he is dropping out because:


"Alexi is well ahead in the polls,'' Meister said. "He's going be our party's nominee and I think we need to come together around him.''

What a craven disregard for the electoral process. This is almost as bad as Danny Davis's endorsement of Brown because she was ahead in the polls. I am sure the many consultants Meister hired are laughing all the way to the bank. Plus bonus -- they don't have to work election day!

Basic stuff: The common wealth should be used for the common good, not to enrich the well-connected few.  

Wow, when did that happen? n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Yes (0.00 / 0)
Hoffman can't win. He doesn't have the statewide name recognition or organization.  The only he impact he could have is to divide the vote enough that Jackson wins.
But I still think Alexi is going to win it.
No, I disagree (0.00 / 0)
I think this primary worked as primaries should, making the final candidate -- whoever it is -- become sharper and more focused.  If Alexi pulls it out, he will have already learned how to deflect many of the criticisms that the Repubs will throw at him ... and many of the issues will have already been aired, making them yesterday's news in the minds of the electorate.

I think the primary has been good.  

[ Parent ]
That may be (0.00 / 0)
but it doesn't really contradict what I wrote.  Alexi may be a better candidate because of it, but I still don't believe Hoffman can win the primary.
[ Parent ]
Gee, with only 9 months between the primary and general (0.00 / 0)
how could Hoffman possibly raise his name recognition? [/snark]

There may be reasons to vote for Alexi over Hoffman, but this ain't one of them.

I tend to agree with the folks over at Open Left that Alexi's connection to a failed bank will be an albatross around Democrats' necks nationwide:

http://www.openleft.com/diary/...

http://www.openleft.com/diary/...

Howard Dean in 2016

[ Parent ]
quite frankly... (3.00 / 1)
i think hoffman is too new to the race to really discern how much potential he has as a candidate.  which i think is sad.

i am supporting alexi, for more than a few reasons.  he stood up against michael madigan at a time when everyone else was basically cowed (by madigan or blagojevich).  he withstood a withering assault from madigan and the regular dems in 2006 and still came out on top.  he's been a regular fixture around the state, and voters genuinely like him.  he has proven that he can raise the money, and he's put together a formidable team.  yeah, he should have filled out the ivi-ipo questionnaire, but i can see why they didn't.  campaigns get a slew of those right after they qualify, and ivi's is probably the one that takes the longest to fill out.  ivi could redress some of the concerns that campaigns have about their questionnaire by posting most or all of their questions online considerably before the filing deadline.  that would eliminate the time-constraint excuse for not completing it.

in that regard, i'm going to have to agree with the campaigns that say that they have to weigh the costs against the benefits in completing such a length questionnaire.

as for jim's comment, i really have to wonder about any potential frame that asserts that republicans can bash bankers.  as a test, i'd ask people to ask 6 people they know which party they associate with bankers.  if you get even 2 of them to answer that democrats are the party of bankers, then perhaps this attack could have legs.  but it really speaks to the sheer resistance that we have to framing, voter biases, and wedge issues on this side of the spectrum.  i used to think that the left just didn't care about winning, but it seems to be much deeper than that.  and i can't understand or explain why anyone would think that republicans/conservatives -- and specifically mark kirk -- could make headway with voters by attacking alexi as banker.  broadway bank is not the reason that alexi is our state treasurer, or the leading contender for the senate.  barack obama is the reason.  without obama, alexi wouldn't have even been interested, let alone successful...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
That's not why they didn't fill out the questionnaire... (0.00 / 0)
It was for a reason you would never have stood for, bored, if you had been involved with Alexi's campaign.
[ Parent ]
What reason? (0.00 / 0)
Care to clue the rest of us in?

"In order for somebody to win an important, major fight 100 years hence, a lot of other people have got to be willing -- for the sheer fun and joy of it -- to go right ahead and fight, knowing you're going to lose." -- I.F. Stone
[ Parent ]
It's a long story, which I won't rehash here, but, the Giannoulias campaign... (0.00 / 0)
seems to have chosen something of a Rose Garden strategy, which seems to have back-fired, IMHO.  This race appears as if it's is going to be closer than anyone expected at this point, and, although Alexi has had good relations with IVI-IPO in the past, as well as several other progressive pols and organizations, most of those people have told me privately of reaching out to the campaign early on, only to be rebuffed, sometimes rudely, and then being open to other candidates.

Win or lose, I hope Alexi rethinks most of his campaign leadership going forward.  

[ Parent ]
at least two Democrats asked him about Broadway bank (0.00 / 0)
at the labor temple in Peoria last night.  The one man I know is the business agent of one of the local unions who likes nothing more than beating Republicans.  The lady I've never seen.

I'm still agnostic when it comes to this race, and I usually have made up my mind by this point.

[ Parent ]
Bank-bashing (0.00 / 0)
My perception is that both parties basically stand with the banks (although Obama has recently moved a bit away from that position) while the wings of both parties are against them. Bashing the banks could be one way for Kirk to attract tea partiers without changing his position otherwise.

Bill Thomasson

Permission to reprint explicitly granted
[ Parent ]
yeah, i'm really thinking about voters... (0.00 / 0)
not the press or the intelligensia (like you!).  voters have pre-existing ideas about which party benefits which groups of people, and republicans are definitely the party of bankers.

at this point, i'm of the opinion that there is no way for kirk to hook up with the tea baggers.  they are extremely suspicious of him, and await his return to the "muddle."  just not buying that as a real possibility...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
My comment. (0.00 / 0)
I was referring to the primary, not the general election.  Winning a statewide primary does take organization, money, name recognition etc.  Hoffman is still unknown in most of the state and that isn't going to change before Tuesday.  
[ Parent ]
FIrst I Noticed How Steady Alexi's Numbers Are ... (4.00 / 1)
He hasn't really been pulling away, has he? Makes the Meister announcement kind of empty. And I know very little about Jackson, so it does set up for some potentially interesting poll-watching -- assuming there's no bandwagon effect for Alexi, which could be the case.

And JIC, the OpenLeft boards have been rich in anti-Hoffman bluster. Does Giannoulias have bloggers at the ready for those places or what?

I know that if it is Alexi, I'll be helping with my hands on my nose between Feb. 3 and November, if he lasts that long ...

I invite everyone... (0.00 / 0)
...to check out the interview program with David Hoffman that the Illinois Committee for Honest Government produced and aired live on the Chicago Access Network on Sunday morning.  You can check out the Hoffman interview (or a number of other programs featuring candidates running in Tuesday's primary for various offices) by going to:
www.issueforum.blip.tv

Once there, click on the icon for the Hoffman program program in the right-hand column of the screen.  Then watch and judge for yourselves.

Did you create an endorsement page? (0.00 / 0)
I looked at one time and had trouble finding it. I may have looked too early. I was considering adding it to the banner list of endorsements at the top of the page.

Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
From the Reader... (0.00 / 0)
In the upcoming primary, the Committee for Honest Government has endorsed such reform-minded mavericks as Joe Berrios, the leading candidate for Cook County assessor, a Springfield lobbyist, and chairman of the Cook County Democratic Party; and state rep Deb Mell, daughter of the aforementioned 33rd Ward alderman.

http://www.chicagoreader.com/g...

[ Parent ]
Hmmmm (0.00 / 0)
Maybe some of their endorsements got "hacked"? Maybe there are a bunch of other good ones?

Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
Ask how many people make the decision... (0.00 / 0)
I don't it's more than, literally, a couple of people.
[ Parent ]
No... and Rasmussen has her at 13%, not 23% (3.00 / 1)
Shhh, you're ruining the buzz here. :-) (0.00 / 0)
The fact that it added up to 101% with none of the other candidates included in the polling wasn't a clue to anyone else.
[ Parent ]
Well, it IS Rasmussen... (0.00 / 0)
They're wingnuts in a class with Fox "News." It could've been their mistake.

"In order for somebody to win an important, major fight 100 years hence, a lot of other people have got to be willing -- for the sheer fun and joy of it -- to go right ahead and fight, knowing you're going to lose." -- I.F. Stone
[ Parent ]
Guess not. n/t (0.00 / 0)

Well, it's over now... (0.00 / 0)
...and Jackson had better pray that Alexi can beat Mark Kirk in November.  Otherwise, she will be known as the spoiler who gift-wrapped Barack Obama's Senate seat and gave it to the GOP.
the premise that jackson votes would have gone... (0.00 / 0)
to hoffman shows a real lack of political insight.  i'd bet that 90% of her votes came from african-americans, most of whom would have undoubtedly voted for either another black candidate OR alexi...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting
[ Parent ]
Don't talk sense there, it's just wasted breath (or keystrokes). n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I was a Jackson voter (0.00 / 0)
who would have supported Giannoulias over Hoffman.
[ Parent ]
Me too. n/t (0.00 / 0)


Jeff Wegerson
[ Parent ]
Alexi ... Come Clean NOW (0.00 / 0)
I heard your acceptance speech. Liked the populism and the fight being taken to Kirk as an insider. But you showed some smarminess and, God knows, those skeletons rattling around your closet are worrisome enough.

Your best bet ... if there is anything ... ANYTHING ... out there, get it out NOW. Because if you let the Teabaggers get a hold of that seat, your best spot after that may very well be in jail.

We'll be watching.

Signed,

IL Voters

P.S.: Thanks for the run, David. You put a scare in Alexi he undoubtedly needed, and you've set yourself up for bigger and better things. Don't be a stranger.

Hoffman would have won if this were 2 weeks from now... (4.00 / 1)
... he was gaining momentum, and with good reason. I only hope to hell that there are no other surprises from AG... Blago's trial this summer is only going to hand Kirk all the rhetorical weapons he needs... and when the Dems were powerless with "60" votes, is another IL machine Dem going to be any improvement?

[ Parent ]
alexi a machine dem??? (0.00 / 0)
i'll assume that's rhetorical flourish on your part.  i'm hoping you know better (but, hey, i'm always thinking people are smarter than they are/know things when they don't).

wasn't hoffman the candidate who said he wanted daley's endorsement?

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
I was totally with you 'til the last sentence. I don't think... (0.00 / 0)
the guy who was Daley's biggest PITA was seeking or expecting or hoping for Daley's endorsement.
[ Parent ]
that's what i read he said... (0.00 / 0)
i remember it more for the juxtaposition it presented than the request itself...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting
[ Parent ]
Not like almost any pol wouldn't want that extra help, but,... (4.00 / 1)
since it runs counter to how Hoffman was positioning himself, and your sourcing is 'I heard it somewhere', and, I'm sure Barack would have welcomed Daley's endorsement the first time he ran, so what?

As I said above, I think razorgirl's wrong in calling Alexi a 'machine candidate', but, I think you're wrong in trying to imply that Hoffman was that candidate, no matter what he said about Daley.  Daley's the 800 lb gorilla that everyone's trying to get out from under.

[ Parent ]
no, i wasn't implying that at all... (3.00 / 1)
hell, the position isn't even in illinois.  i guess since i've lived here, only dan hynes was interested in serving outside of the state as a machine-backed candidate.  i hadn't really noticed the machine getting involved otherwise.

my comment about hoffman asking for daley's support was more ironical than implication...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
About as I suspected, and, if I follow your avowed... (0.00 / 0)
line of reasoning in your advocacy for candidates correctly, if you were advising Hoffman, you'd probably recommend that Hoffman seek and accept that endorsement, if offered.

Recc'd for the cite.

:-)

[ Parent ]
i'd have no problem with daley endorsing hoffman... (3.00 / 1)
or giannoulias or whoever.  wouldn't make me more interested in a candidate, but whatever.  i was just yanking her chain.  i figured she was exaggerating her view, and i was merely following her lead (or so i thought!).

i thought we had discussed hoffman's comments here, so i figured everybody would get the joke, as it were...

"We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids," President Obama told his advisors about all the infighting

[ Parent ]
Alexi won the Treasurer's office (3.00 / 1)
without the support of the Illinois Democratic Party, who ran a candidate against him.  I don't think the "machine" particularly cares for him, since it seemed to me there were more than a few high-up Dems actively recruiting people to run against him for Senate.  
[ Parent ]
Did Hoffman ever lead in a poll? (0.00 / 0)
How many elections has Alexi won?

How many has Hoffman won?

[ Parent ]
Did Alexi run the best campaign that you think he... (0.00 / 0)
could have run?  Isn't it important that he run the best campaign going forward?

How many races had Alexi run before the last Treasurer's race?  How many races did Dick Phelan run before he won the County Board Presidency?  What do any of these questions have to do with razorgirl's supposition?

[ Parent ]
Alexi didn't have to run a campaign good enough (0.00 / 0)
to beat Barack Obama or Bill Clinton. Giannoulias ran a better campaign than Hoffman or Jackson.

Based on the campaigns the candidates ran, I feel comfortable that Giannoulias will be competent against Kirk.

Before willing the 2010 primary for U.S. Senate he won a primary and a general in 2006. Both these races were seriously contested.

The supposition that Hoffman would have won if he got more time is suspect.

While Hoffman was gaining in the polls, part of that momentum was based on newspaper endorsements. While newspaper endorsements can help in the short term, they also fade from memory is they are too far before an election.

The support Giannoulias courted, unions and political organizations, hold value.

Giannoulias sought the kind of support that wins elections. Hoffman sought the kind of support intellectual losers like to point to when they are sulking.

Also, I fail to see how Blagojevich's trial is going to hurt Giannoulias more than any other Democrat. Giannoulias was never close to Blagojevich. To the extent they were part of the same Dem ticket in 2006, MJM did everything he could to keep Giannoulias from gaining the benefits of being on the ticket.

[ Parent ]
The primary was seriously contested? We just disagree. (4.00 / 1)
Winning with 38% against 34% for someone no one knew (State-wide name rec.) six months ago is not a crushing.

If you think "good enough" is good enough against Kirk, then you disagree with almost everyone here.

And statements like

Hoffman sought the kind of support intellectual losers like to point to when they are sulking.

are just the kind of thinking that got Alexi's campaign where he almost got beat.  Hope they chose better thinking going forward.
[ Parent ]
Could Jackson Pull Off a Braun? | 47 comments
Prairie State Blue
Front Page - Back Page


Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

0 User(s) logged on.
Search




Advanced Search

Misc
View
Powered by: SoapBlox