Cook PVI Updates

old vs. new relative rankings (0.00 / 0)

The old Cook PVI ranked the districts:

(Most D to least)
IL10
IL06
IL16
IL08, IL13, IL14

The new Cook PVI:
IL10
IL06
IL08, IL13, IL14
IL16

The entire delegation:

IL02
IL07
IL01
IL04
IL09
IL05
IL03
IL10
IL12, IL17
IL06
IL08, IL11, IL13, IL14
IL16
IL15, IL18
IL19

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by: Carl Nyberg @ Sun Apr 12, 2009 at 19:05:54 PM CDT

But what about redistricting? (0.00 / 0)

Let's assume the Black and Latino districts can't be tapped for Dem voters b/c of the Voting Rights Act (IL01 +34, IL02 +36, IL04 +32 and IL07 +35).

The balance of the other fifteen districts is +35 PVI. On average those districts are +2.3. But the goal isn't necessarily to create 15 theoretically winnable districts. The goal should be to create one to three strong Republican districts and everything else winnable.

While there are rumors that IL03 will be the sacrificial district in 2012, the loss of population is from the more rural areas of the state (IL11 1, IL12 +3, IL14 1, IL15 6, IL16 2, IL17 +3, IL18 6 and IL19 9). Combined, these districts are -21. Republicans control four; Democrats control four.

The new map should strive for Dems having a four to three advantage. Is it possible to get a 5:2 advantage?

By eliminating IL03 the Dems will be able to send Dem voters into some new districts, but it seems tricky to cascade this outward.

Send some Dem voters from IL03 to IL13 and then transfer some Dem leaning precincts from IL13 to IL14?

Use Dems from IL03 to shore up IL11 and then move IL15 closer to Chicago?

Any thoughts?

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by: Carl Nyberg @ Sun Apr 12, 2009 at 19:29:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Downstate (0.00 / 0)

It wouldn't be hard to draw out 2-3 Republican incumbents from downstate.  

1) Draw Shimkus (IL19) into a Dem district with Costello (IL12) centered around metro-east St Louis.  It would only take putting more of Democratic Madison county into 12.  He'll either have to run against an incumbent in a Dem district, or run in a new district that doesn't include his home county.  This is what should have happened in 2001.

2) Redistrict Manzullo (IL16) into a Dem leaning district that combines Rockford with either the Quad Cities (IL17), where he'll have to run against Hare, or make 16 include more of the collar county areas that are trending Democratic and outside of Manzullo's base.

That eliminates the two most extremist Republicans in the Congressional delegation.

3) Draw Schock (IL18) into a district with Johnson (IL15) that includes all of the most Republican parts of the region.

That leaves us with two incumbent-free districts to draw in downstate.  Keep in mind that the election will be in 2012, a Presidential election year with Obama presumably on the ballot.

One of those districts will be the new 19, which will include most of the rural Southern half of the state with a few Dem leaning counties added in (maybe Jackson, Alexander, Macoupin, Montgomery, Gallatin).  You can't make this a Democratic district but you can make it close enough for a good Democrat to win and safely hold.  Rural Southern Illinois deserves to have their own Congressman again and we have office-holders in the area who could win the district.

Finally, you make a gerrymandered central Illinois district based around Champaign, Decatur and Springfield that leans slightly Democratic.  It might also include the Democratic parts of Peoria and McLean counties and the surrounding rural areas that aren't as heavily Republican. It would have to include parts of the current 17th, which will shift northward.

There's a chance that either of the two new districts could elect a Republican but if we don't win them in 2012 we'll still have other opportunities down the road.  In the meantime, faltering downstate Democratic organizations would benefit from the organizing help that comes with a competitive Congressional race. It would have long-term payoffs for state and local races in downstate.

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by: Willinois @ Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 14:07:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Agreed (0.00 / 0)

This is definitely ideal if we want the maximum number of Democrats possible. I actually can't think of any other arrangement that would do that. But weren't we just lambasting Shimkus (other than being a total nutjob) for his partisan-constructed  over-gerrymandered district? =)

Also, I think that the "faltering" downstate Democratic groups are going to get a huge lift from the Illinois Democratic County Chairmen's Association's recent extreme makeover/grassroots overhaul even before the 2010/2012 cycles.

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by: Geneve @ Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 15:10:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

IL-18 got even more Republican (0.00 / 0)

Which is too depressing to ponder.  Most of the bloggers here have no idea what an uphill struggle we face in central Illinois.  Sorry, I try not to wallow in self-pity.

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by: BrianG @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 09:29:14 AM CDT

any time you want to vent (0.00 / 0)

we'll listen.  Those of us in Chicago get too wrapped up in our own battles of dems vs. dems (progressives vs. "regulars") and feel a little nostalgic about good old-fashioned dem vs. repub fights ... but maybe lending a sympathetic eye to your struggles will cure us of that nostalgia :)  

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by: maven @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 12:51:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]