Indiana Tightening: Clinton 49 - Obama 46

by: wegerje

Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 18:06:51 PM CDT


New Polling via BlueIndiana shows a tigtening race there as Obama is appearing statewide in the media where as Clinton has not. This is in spite of no new visits there by Obama for several weeks.

Important note: Registration for the Indiana Primary ends April 7.

There's a new poll out of Indiana this evening and it shows a tightening race in my state's presidential primary battle. Here are the results, along with the numbers from Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll:
Research 2000
400 Likely Voters -- MoE 5% - 3/31-4/2

49% -- Hillary Clinton
46% -- Barack Obama
5% -- Undecided

SurveyUSA
530 Likely Voters -- MoE 4.3% - 3/29-3/31

52% -- Hillary Clinton>
43% -- Barack Obama
5% -- Other/Undecided

For the record: SurveyUSA has one of the best track records of any polling outfit this primary election cycle. So keep that in mind as you read these new results by Research 2000.

wegerje :: Indiana Tightening: Clinton 49 - Obama 46
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Welcome (0.00 / 0)
The change is well within the margin of error.
But, as I have to point out each time to the innumerate, that merely means that there is a likelihood greater than 5% that it is due to sampling.
The news is welcome.

And that's just random sampling fluctuations (0.00 / 0)
What statisticians call "sampling bias" is something else. In the current context, that means the people you are calling aren't fully representative of those who will actually go to the polls. Sampling bias has been a real problem in this primary cycle (and to a significant extent for the past 8 years) because turnout has depended so heavily on GOTV effots by the campaigns rather than tracking historic patterns.

Bill Thomasson

Permission to reprint explicitly granted


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